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2026-05-27 09:56:38
【Australia’s core inflation remains above the upper limit of the target range, and expectations for interest rate hikes have cooled amid economic weakness】 (1) Australia’s core inflation rate in April remained above the upper limit of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range of 2%-3%. The closely watched cut-off mean inflation rate rose 3.4% year-on-year, in line with expectations, reinforcing market expectations that the RBA will maintain a hawkish stance. (2) The interest rate swap market shows that the probability of another rate hike in August is about 50%, down from 64% before the data was released. The market generally expects that after raising interest rates in the first three meetings this year, the RBA will keep the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in June. (3) The economy is showing signs of weakness under the dual pressure of high borrowing costs and fuel prices driven up by the Iran war: the unemployment rate rose to a four-and-a-half-year high in April; about one-third of businesses reported a decline in revenue in the past four weeks, and half of businesses reported an increase in operating costs. (4) The head of price statistics at the Australian Bureau of Statistics said that fuel prices are still 23.5% higher than before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, and the impact of rising oil prices is also reflected in goods and services with higher transportation and logistics costs.
