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[Caixin Futures: Ferrous Metals Show Divergence, Coking Coal Can Be Considered a Long Position in the Ferrous Metals Chain] ⑴ Steel: Fluctuating at low levels, valuations are declining. Current steel demand is insufficient, while supply remains high, resulting in a generally weak supply-demand outlook. The top 20 long and short positions in the rebar 10 contract showed roughly equal increases, while short positions in the hot-rolled coil 10 contract decreased more significantly. Technically, the rebar 10 contract fluctuated and closed lower, and under pressure from the moving average group, it may continue its weak adjustment in the short term. In terms of valuation, the market is already below the cost of long-process rebar in East China and the off-peak electricity cost of independent electric arc furnaces (corresponding to around 3185), with a neutral to low valuation. Short-term upside and downside potential may be limited. Before a significant decrease in pig iron production, finished steel can still be considered a short position in the ferrous metals chain. ⑵ Iron Ore: Fluctuating at high levels, valuations are declining. On the supply side, shipments continue to recover, with a surge in shipments expected as the Australian fiscal year-end approaches in June; on the demand side, high pig iron production provides support for spot prices. Technically, the 09 contract fluctuated and closed higher, with attention focused on the support of the 60-day moving average; the fund flow showed little change between long and short positions. Iron ore valuations may decline in the short term, but the downside is limited before pig iron production decreases significantly. (3) Coking Coal: Fluctuating. Some suspended coal mines have resumed production, but with stricter safety regulations, supply recovery remains slow, and short-term coal prices continue to rise. In terms of funds, both long and short positions increased in the top 20, with long positions increasing more. Technically, the 09 contract closed positive after fluctuating, with short-term support at 1230 yuan/ton and resistance at 1290 yuan/ton. June is a month for safe production; attention should be paid to the speed of coal mine resumption and the regulatory risks of thermal coal prices. In the short term, coking coal can be considered a long position in the black chain. (4) Coke: Valuation shows support. Rising raw material prices have pushed up the immediate costs of coke producers, forcing some to reduce production, leading to a marginal decline in coke output. Pig iron production remains high, with strong demand supporting prices, and coke producers still have the willingness to raise prices. However, with the off-season for steel demand approaching, steel and coke may engage in another round of bargaining. After the fourth round of price increases was fully implemented, the corresponding warehouse receipt cost was 1880 yuan/ton. In the short term, the market will fluctuate around whether the fifth round of price increases will be implemented. (5) Manganese Silicon: Fluctuating. Manganese ore shipments continued to decline, port inventories shifted from increase to decrease, and factory operating rates rebounded slightly but remained low. The mentality of pressuring for lower prices was prominent, and overall supply and demand remained weak and stable. In the short term, the market may mainly follow the fluctuations of raw coal. Technically, the manganese silicon 07 contract rebounded after a reduction in open interest. Support is seen at the 10-day moving average, while resistance may be around 6050.