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[Caixin Futures: Energy and Chemical Commodities Weaken from High Levels, Crude Oil Shows Weakness] ⑴ Crude Oil: Weakness is expected. Recent news regarding the US-Iran negotiations reaching some consensus has been released. Iranian officials recently stated that according to the preliminary draft agreement, the US will implement a 60-day ceasefire on all fronts, but the core issues remain unresolved. Geopolitical tensions are developing in a direction of easing, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. As prices gradually become less sensitive to positive news, it is not advisable to chase high prices if energy and chemical commodities experience another impulsive surge. ⑵ Fuel Oil: Weakening from High Levels. Oil-producing countries reduced production during the Middle East conflict, and China's reliance on imported high-sulfur fuel oil is high. US-Iran negotiations have reached a stalemate, but may develop in a direction of easing in the future. Consider shorting with a small position when the price rebounds to the resistance level and stagnates. ⑶ Asphalt: Weakening from High Levels. Today, the price of 70# heavy-grade asphalt in Shandong is 4370 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month. In June, the total output of local asphalt refineries in China was 625,000 tons, a decrease of 249,000 tons, or 28.5%, compared to the previous month. At the beginning of this week, the inventory of asphalt at 54 sample plants in China was 888,000 tons, a decrease of 1.3% compared to May 21; the inventory of social warehouses at 104 plants was 1.442 million tons, a decrease of 1.7% compared to May 21 and a year-on-year decrease of 23.2%. Overall, the market is in a weak supply and demand situation, and asphalt is likely to fluctuate mainly in line with cost fluctuations. (4) Glass: The rebound potential may be limited. Today, shipments from enterprises in North China improved compared to the previous few days, and prices remained stable. The current daily output of the industry is 146,900 tons. Last week, upstream inventory increased by 44,000 weight boxes, a week-on-week increase of 0.06% and a year-on-year increase of 12.82%. The low supply provides some support for prices, while rising energy prices have driven up costs. A weak rebound is expected in the short term, but medium-term supply and demand pressures remain, and the upside potential is relatively cautious. (5) Soda Ash: The rebound potential may be limited. Today, the domestic soda ash market fluctuated steadily, with no significant price fluctuations. Plant operations fluctuated and adjusted, with the Jinshan No. 2 plant in Henan shut down for maintenance, resulting in a fluctuating downward trend in output. Downstream demand was lukewarm, with restocking occurring only as needed. On Monday, the total inventory of domestic soda ash producers was 1.701 million tons, a decrease of 75,000 tons from last Thursday, a drop of 4.22%. Considering the persistently high coal costs and the large number of soda ash plants undergoing maintenance, prices may fluctuate and rebound in the short term, but the high supply and weak demand in the medium term are unlikely to change, limiting the upside potential. ⑹ Caustic soda: Fluctuating with a bearish bias. Today, the mainstream price of liquid soda ash in Shandong remained stable, while prices in southwestern and central Shandong showed mixed trends. Recently, there have been many plants undergoing maintenance and reducing production in Shandong, resulting in a significant reduction in supply. ⑺ Methanol: Weakening from high levels. Today, the spot price in Taicang was 3125, down 40; the price in northern Inner Mongolia was 2675, down 5. Today, futures continued to consolidate with a bearish bias. Trading in coastal areas was generally weak. Recently, influenced by the progress of geopolitical negotiations, the futures markets for commodities such as crude oil have seen a significant correction, leading to a weakening of methanol sentiment. This week's data shows that port inventory decreased by 73,500 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 9.99% week-on-week, while producer inventory was 343,500 tons, a decrease of 20,700 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 5.68% week-on-week. However, with the recent increase in news about US-Iran negotiations, the methanol market may experience a slightly weak and volatile trend.