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2026-05-27 21:42:50
[West African Cocoa Sees Brief Dry Window, Mid-Term Rain Risk Returns, Weather in Growing Regions Becomes Key Variable] ⑴ According to agency meteorological reports, the cocoa-producing regions of Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana in West Africa recorded heavy rainfall over the past week, with cumulative rainfall over 7 days 25 to 100 mm above normal. Flooding occurred in western Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire. In the next 15 days, rainfall in Ethiopian coffee-producing regions is expected to be 15 to 35 mm above normal, as the rain shifts eastward after initially flooding West Africa. ⑵ The weather in West Africa is expected to become drier over the next 5 days. Flood-affected cocoa regions should be able to achieve dry conditions by early June, which is a positive sign for damaged producing areas. However, wet weather may return to West Africa in mid-June, and this risk needs close monitoring as it could damage cocoa pods. ⑶ Weather model analysis shows that the Madden-Julian Oscillation is expected to enter its 7th phase in mid-June, which may support cool and wet weather in West Africa, while South Africa will experience cool and dry conditions. In the short term, the South African maize harvest is expected to proceed smoothly outside of the cool and wet conditions in the eastern Cape.
