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2026-05-28 10:57:08
[ECB President Lane: Even if the Middle East conflict is resolved quickly, the energy shock could still have a lasting impact on inflation] (1) Lane said that even if the Middle East conflict is resolved quickly, the resulting energy shock could still have a lasting impact on inflation. Historically, oil prices have often fallen after a surge, but currently countries are replenishing their inventories or adjusting their energy structures, and energy costs may remain high. (2) He pointed out that global oil supply has fallen rapidly and sharply, previously masked by inventories; even if the initial energy shock subsides, the second round of effects will continue for some time. (3) Lane said that policy lessons can be learned from past energy shocks: rising energy costs can suddenly push up inflation and trigger "various non-linear" mechanisms to expand the scope of price increases, but this is different from the non-linear situation four years ago (the Ukraine war and the restart of demand after the pandemic).
