Crude oil trading alert: Uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran ceasefire agreement fuels supply concerns, keeping oil prices in a narrow range.
2026-06-01 09:41:02
International crude oil markets rebounded significantly after opening on Monday, with WTI crude oil prices rising more than 2%, reaching a high of around $90 per barrel, shaking off its previous weakness that had fallen to a six-week low. Renewed concerns about the prospects of a peace agreement between the United States and Iran have prompted investors to reassess energy supply risks in the Middle East.
Recent market focus has been on the progress of negotiations between the United States and Iran regarding a ceasefire agreement. Market research indicates that the US and Iran continued communication and revisions over the weekend regarding a draft agreement aimed at extending the ceasefire and promoting the resumption of normal navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. However, as of now, it remains unclear whether the two sides have achieved a substantial breakthrough on key issues.
Previously, the market had been optimistic that the two sides might reach a phase-one peace agreement, thereby gradually restoring energy transport through the Strait of Hormuz to normal. This optimism led to a significant correction in international oil prices over the past month, recording its first monthly decline this year. However, as negotiations have become more complex again, market expectations for the speed of crude oil supply recovery have begun to cool.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important energy transport routes, handling approximately 20% of global seaborne crude oil shipments. Any restrictions on this shipping route typically trigger a rapid adjustment in supply risk premiums in the international energy market, thereby driving up crude oil prices. Therefore, even though global crude oil inventories are currently at a relatively stable level, investors remain highly sensitive to changes in the Middle East situation.
Economist Gaod stated that neither the United States nor Iran will easily compromise on core interests, issues that have existed for a long time before the conflict. The main differences between the two sides lie in areas such as nuclear program arrangements, control of the Strait of Hormuz, ballistic missile programs, and related sanctions.
Gaod stated, "Neither Iran nor the United States will make concessions or compromises on the bottom lines of reaching an agreement, some of which have remained unchanged since before the conflict."
Market analysts believe that future oil price trends will continue to be influenced by regional developments and political statements from both sides. Any news of a breakthrough in the ceasefire agreement could alleviate supply concerns, while a stalemate in negotiations or even a further escalation of the situation could quickly push oil prices up.
From a global market perspective, the crude oil market is currently reassessing the balance between supply risks and demand prospects. On the one hand, the continued uncertainty in the Middle East poses a potential threat to the supply side; on the other hand, the global economic growth outlook remains relatively stable, and energy demand remains resilient, providing some support for oil prices.
The market has shifted from its previous one-sided optimism regarding a peace agreement to a more cautious risk assessment phase. Until the details of the agreement are clear, the market is more inclined to retain a certain risk premium, which was one of the key reasons for Monday's oil price rebound.
From the daily chart, WTI crude oil is currently still in a wide-range trading pattern. After the previous rapid pullback, the price found significant support around $86, indicating that buying power remains. The $92 area forms a significant resistance level, while $86 is a key support area. If it can effectively break through $92, it may further test the resistance area around $95; if it fails to break through, the market may continue to consolidate within the range. The RSI indicator has started to rise from the neutral zone, indicating that market sentiment has improved; the MACD indicator is gradually narrowing its decline, showing signs of weakening short-term bearish momentum.
Observing the 4-hour chart, oil prices have rebounded continuously after stabilizing around $86, with short-term moving averages re-forming a bullish alignment. The MACD indicator has formed a golden cross, and the red bars are gradually expanding, indicating that short-term buying power has strengthened. The RSI indicator has risen to around 60, reflecting a more optimistic market sentiment. If the price can hold above $92, it may further test the $95 area; if it is resisted again near $92, it may fall back to the $88-$89 range to find support. Overall, the short-term trend remains dominated by range-bound trading with a slight upward bias.
Editor's Summary:
The market will continue to focus on the progress of negotiations between the US and Iran, the security situation in the Middle East, and the navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, energy demand data from major global economies and changes in US crude oil inventories will also be important factors influencing the market. Until supply risks are fully resolved, international oil prices are expected to remain highly volatile.
Recent market focus has been on the progress of negotiations between the United States and Iran regarding a ceasefire agreement. Market research indicates that the US and Iran continued communication and revisions over the weekend regarding a draft agreement aimed at extending the ceasefire and promoting the resumption of normal navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. However, as of now, it remains unclear whether the two sides have achieved a substantial breakthrough on key issues.
Previously, the market had been optimistic that the two sides might reach a phase-one peace agreement, thereby gradually restoring energy transport through the Strait of Hormuz to normal. This optimism led to a significant correction in international oil prices over the past month, recording its first monthly decline this year. However, as negotiations have become more complex again, market expectations for the speed of crude oil supply recovery have begun to cool.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important energy transport routes, handling approximately 20% of global seaborne crude oil shipments. Any restrictions on this shipping route typically trigger a rapid adjustment in supply risk premiums in the international energy market, thereby driving up crude oil prices. Therefore, even though global crude oil inventories are currently at a relatively stable level, investors remain highly sensitive to changes in the Middle East situation.
Economist Gaod stated that neither the United States nor Iran will easily compromise on core interests, issues that have existed for a long time before the conflict. The main differences between the two sides lie in areas such as nuclear program arrangements, control of the Strait of Hormuz, ballistic missile programs, and related sanctions.
Gaod stated, "Neither Iran nor the United States will make concessions or compromises on the bottom lines of reaching an agreement, some of which have remained unchanged since before the conflict."
Market analysts believe that future oil price trends will continue to be influenced by regional developments and political statements from both sides. Any news of a breakthrough in the ceasefire agreement could alleviate supply concerns, while a stalemate in negotiations or even a further escalation of the situation could quickly push oil prices up.
From a global market perspective, the crude oil market is currently reassessing the balance between supply risks and demand prospects. On the one hand, the continued uncertainty in the Middle East poses a potential threat to the supply side; on the other hand, the global economic growth outlook remains relatively stable, and energy demand remains resilient, providing some support for oil prices.
The market has shifted from its previous one-sided optimism regarding a peace agreement to a more cautious risk assessment phase. Until the details of the agreement are clear, the market is more inclined to retain a certain risk premium, which was one of the key reasons for Monday's oil price rebound.
From the daily chart, WTI crude oil is currently still in a wide-range trading pattern. After the previous rapid pullback, the price found significant support around $86, indicating that buying power remains. The $92 area forms a significant resistance level, while $86 is a key support area. If it can effectively break through $92, it may further test the resistance area around $95; if it fails to break through, the market may continue to consolidate within the range. The RSI indicator has started to rise from the neutral zone, indicating that market sentiment has improved; the MACD indicator is gradually narrowing its decline, showing signs of weakening short-term bearish momentum.
Observing the 4-hour chart, oil prices have rebounded continuously after stabilizing around $86, with short-term moving averages re-forming a bullish alignment. The MACD indicator has formed a golden cross, and the red bars are gradually expanding, indicating that short-term buying power has strengthened. The RSI indicator has risen to around 60, reflecting a more optimistic market sentiment. If the price can hold above $92, it may further test the $95 area; if it is resisted again near $92, it may fall back to the $88-$89 range to find support. Overall, the short-term trend remains dominated by range-bound trading with a slight upward bias.
Editor's Summary:
The market will continue to focus on the progress of negotiations between the US and Iran, the security situation in the Middle East, and the navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, energy demand data from major global economies and changes in US crude oil inventories will also be important factors influencing the market. Until supply risks are fully resolved, international oil prices are expected to remain highly volatile.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
