June 10th Financial Breakfast: Rising interest rate hike expectations weigh on gold prices, which hit a two-month low, while oil prices hit a seven-week low. Be wary of US airstrikes on five locations in southern Iran.
2026-06-10 07:27:52
On Wednesday (June 10, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $4,233 per ounce, having touched a more than two-month low of $4,227.87 per ounce at the open, influenced by rising expectations of a US interest rate hike and widespread risk aversion in the market. US crude oil was trading around $89.06 per barrel, with oil prices falling nearly 3% on Tuesday to a seven-week low. Despite renewed tensions between the US and Iran and US airstrikes on five locations in southern Iran, Iran and Israel halted their attacks on each other at the urging of US President Trump, which dampened Tuesday's oil price gains.
U.S. stocks closed mixed on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both falling 0.3% and 1% respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose slightly by 0.2%. Technology stocks faced renewed selling pressure after a brief rebound on Monday, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index turning from a 3% gain to a sharp 8.6% drop during the session before ultimately closing down 1.9%.
Market sentiment was also dampened by geopolitical tensions: US President Trump said on social media that Iran shot down a US Apache helicopter patrolling the Strait of Hormuz and vowed to retaliate, which exacerbated market doubts about the prospects for a ceasefire in the Middle East.
In addition, investors are watching May consumer price data to be released later this week to assess the impact of rising energy prices on inflation, while remaining wary of potential market volatility from SpaceX’s planned massive initial public offering (to raise $75 billion with a target valuation of $1.75 trillion) on Friday.
Gold prices fell nearly 2% on Tuesday, hitting a more than two-month low. Spot gold closed down 1.63% at $4,259.29 an ounce, influenced by rising expectations of a US interest rate hike and widespread risk aversion in the market.
Following last week's strong jobs data, market focus has shifted to this week's key inflation data (Wednesday's May Consumer Price Index and Thursday's Producer Price Index) for further clues on monetary policy.
CME Group data shows that traders currently estimate a 74.2% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December. Furthermore, the announcement by Iran and Israel of a truce in their attacks, leading to a drop in oil prices, has also reduced demand for gold as an inflation hedge. Analysts at RJO Futures stated that gold and silver will remain under pressure until the Federal Reserve provides clearer guidance.
Oil prices fell about 3% on Tuesday, hitting a seven-week low. Brent crude fell 2.52% to settle at $91.79 a barrel; U.S. crude futures fell 2.83% to $88.70 a barrel, after hitting a low of $85.95 a barrel, the lowest since May 29. Prices rebounded somewhat from intraday lows following calls from U.S. President Trump for a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Although Trump later claimed that Iran shot down a U.S. helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz and threatened retaliation, the market remained under pressure due to the ceasefire.
Iran has stated that it will resume hostilities if Israel continues its attacks on Hezbollah militants in Lebanon.
Furthermore, crude oil imports in a major Asian country plummeted by 29% in May, reaching an eight-year low, further suppressing oil prices. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that the war with Iran will reduce global oil production to 99 million barrels per day by 2026, down from a record level in 2025, while demand will also fall from 104 million barrels per day to 102.9 million barrels per day, and OECD inventories could fall to their lowest level since 2003.
According to data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), U.S. crude oil inventories fell for the eighth consecutive week last week, while gasoline inventories also decreased. For the week ending June 5, crude oil inventories decreased by 9.12 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.19 million barrels, and distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.32 million barrels. The market is awaiting the EIA weekly inventory report.
The dollar index fell 0.09% to 99.95 on Tuesday, pressured by the fragile ceasefire in the Middle East and market anticipation of key U.S. inflation data.
US President Trump claimed Iran shot down a US military helicopter and vowed retaliation, briefly narrowing the dollar's losses. This followed a cessation of attacks between Israel and Iran at Trump's urging, but subsequent Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon that killed at least eight people complicated the peace prospects. Investors are focused on Wednesday's release of US May CPI data for further signals on the Federal Reserve's policy path; the federal funds futures market projects a 74.2% probability of a rate hike before December. The euro rose 0.07% against the dollar to $1.15435, with the market focused on the European Central Bank's expected 25 basis point rate hike at its meeting on Thursday.
The yen fell 0.12% to 160.34 yen to the dollar, still close to the 160 level that could trigger official intervention. According to Japanese media reports, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates to 1% this week and suspend its bond-buying tapering program starting in April 2027.
The war reignites as the US launches retaliatory strikes against Iran; explosions occur in multiple locations in southern Iran.
At 5:00 PM Eastern Time on March 9th, the US military launched a "self-defense" strike against Iran in response to the downing of a US Apache helicopter the previous day. Explosions occurred in multiple locations in Iran's Hormozgan province, and air defense systems in some areas were activated, but there has been no official response from Iran so far. Meanwhile, US officials stated that the strike was intended to send a warning signal to Iran and that the action would not interfere with the US-Iran negotiations. (CCTV)
US airstrikes on five locations in southern Iran
According to Iranian officials, the US airstrikes targeted five locations along Iran's southern coast, primarily including military bases, naval facilities, radar stations, and artillery positions. These officials further indicated that the targets appeared to include naval bases in Sirik and Jask, air defense facilities in Bandar Abbas, and missile sites on Qeshm Island.
The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this year is approximately 74.2%.
According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by June is 98.2%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 1.8%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by July is 85.8%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 12.6%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 1.6%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by December is 25.4%, the probability of a rate hike of at least 25 basis points is 74.2%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 0.5%.
Report: US-Iran nuclear negotiations are close to reaching a framework agreement.
According to the New York Times, citing US officials and diplomatic sources familiar with the US-Iran negotiations, the differences between the two sides on four core issues are gradually narrowing: a 15-year suspension of uranium enrichment activities, diluting Iran's existing enriched uranium stockpile, dismantling most of its nuclear facilities, and expanding the scope of international inspections. However, the prospects for the negotiations remain uncertain due to renewed military tensions, including the downing of a US helicopter. Negotiators are also discussing unfreezing approximately $25 billion in frozen Iranian assets. US officials are cautiously optimistic that further detailed negotiations may resume soon, but internal political and military opposition on both sides still poses a significant risk.
Trump: The US may fund Iran's infrastructure reconstruction
ABC News, citing an interview with US President Trump, reported that Trump stated the US might fund Iran's reconstruction if the US destroyed its infrastructure. "Someone has to build all this infrastructure, new bridges, new facilities, new power plants," Trump said. "It takes a trillion dollars, maybe more. You understand, that's why we might get involved in rebuilding, right? Help them rebuild." When asked if this was a Marshall Plan targeting Iran, Trump responded "yes," adding, "But we'll take half their oil."
Iran has not submitted any new proposals to the United States.
Sources within Iran's negotiating team told Fars News Agency that Iran has not submitted any new proposals to the United States. Sky News reported today that Iran has submitted a new draft peace plan to the US, and preliminary reports indicate that the US considers the plan acceptable. Previously, Al Jazeera reported that Iran had agreed to transfer enriched uranium to a third country, a claim also denied by Iran.
Iranian parliamentary official: Armed forces are prepared to respond to any aggression.
On September 9th local time, Rezaei, spokesperson for the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, stated that the Iranian armed forces have reached the highest state of combat and defense readiness, and the damage has been repaired. He also stated that the Iranian armed forces are prepared to respond to any aggression at the highest level. (CCTV News)
The U.S. Department of Energy maintained its 2026-27 Brent crude oil price forecast unchanged, while raising its U.S. production forecast.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (STEO) released its Short-Term Energy (STEO) forecast: Brent crude oil prices are projected at $95/barrel in 2026 (previously $95/barrel) and $79/barrel in 2027 (previously $79/barrel). U.S. oil production is projected at 13.7 million barrels per day in 2026 (previously 13.6 million barrels per day) and 14.2 million barrels per day in 2027 (previously 14.1 million barrels per day). U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports are projected at 17.2 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 (previously 17 billion cubic feet per day) and 18.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2027 (previously 18.2 billion cubic feet per day).
Ursula von der Leyen submits the 21st round of EU sanctions against Russia
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on March 9 that the EU has submitted its 21st round of sanctions against Russia to member states, primarily targeting the energy, finance, and fisheries sectors. Speaking to the media at a press conference on March 9, von der Leyen said the EU proposes suspending the automatic adjustment mechanism for the cap on Russian crude oil prices until January next year, pending a stabilization of the oil market. The EU also plans to add 30 vessels to its sanctions list and, for the first time, take measures against vessels providing refueling and other services to a "shadow fleet," while also planning to restrict the sale of energy transport vessels to Russia. In the financial services and crypto-asset sectors, the EU plans to expand the scope of the transaction ban to include several Russian banks and proposes, for the first time, a third-country ban on crypto-asset services. In the trade sector, the EU plans to impose new export restrictions on items and technologies needed by the Russian military industry, focusing on metals and alloys needed in aerospace and defense sectors, and plans to add a number of import bans to further reduce European dependence on Russian products. In the fisheries sector, the EU plans to impose substantial restrictions on Russian fisheries for the first time and implement a comprehensive import ban on certain products, including cod. (Xinhua)
my country's largest integrated photovoltaic-hydrogen-storage project has been fully completed.
On the 10th, it was learned from the State Energy Group that the Guohua Investment Jiangsu Rudong Photovoltaic-Hydrogen-Storage Integrated Project has been fully completed. This is also the largest marine photovoltaic demonstration project integrating photovoltaic, hydrogen, and storage in China. Located in the coastal mudflats of Rudong, Jiangsu, the project has a total photovoltaic capacity of 400,000 kilowatts, and includes a newly built 220 kV shore-based booster station, a hydrogen production station with a hydrogen production capacity of 1,500 standard cubic meters per hour, and an electrochemical energy storage power station. As the first project in China to integrate power generation, hydrogen production, and energy storage, while also considering comprehensive energy utilization and coastal ecological governance, it achieves the efficient and composite utilization of "electricity-storage-hydrogen". (CCTV News)
Key Focus Today
stock market
U.S. stocks closed mixed on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both falling 0.3% and 1% respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose slightly by 0.2%. Technology stocks faced renewed selling pressure after a brief rebound on Monday, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index turning from a 3% gain to a sharp 8.6% drop during the session before ultimately closing down 1.9%.
Market sentiment was also dampened by geopolitical tensions: US President Trump said on social media that Iran shot down a US Apache helicopter patrolling the Strait of Hormuz and vowed to retaliate, which exacerbated market doubts about the prospects for a ceasefire in the Middle East.
In addition, investors are watching May consumer price data to be released later this week to assess the impact of rising energy prices on inflation, while remaining wary of potential market volatility from SpaceX’s planned massive initial public offering (to raise $75 billion with a target valuation of $1.75 trillion) on Friday.
Gold Market
Gold prices fell nearly 2% on Tuesday, hitting a more than two-month low. Spot gold closed down 1.63% at $4,259.29 an ounce, influenced by rising expectations of a US interest rate hike and widespread risk aversion in the market.
Following last week's strong jobs data, market focus has shifted to this week's key inflation data (Wednesday's May Consumer Price Index and Thursday's Producer Price Index) for further clues on monetary policy.
CME Group data shows that traders currently estimate a 74.2% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December. Furthermore, the announcement by Iran and Israel of a truce in their attacks, leading to a drop in oil prices, has also reduced demand for gold as an inflation hedge. Analysts at RJO Futures stated that gold and silver will remain under pressure until the Federal Reserve provides clearer guidance.
oil market
Oil prices fell about 3% on Tuesday, hitting a seven-week low. Brent crude fell 2.52% to settle at $91.79 a barrel; U.S. crude futures fell 2.83% to $88.70 a barrel, after hitting a low of $85.95 a barrel, the lowest since May 29. Prices rebounded somewhat from intraday lows following calls from U.S. President Trump for a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Although Trump later claimed that Iran shot down a U.S. helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz and threatened retaliation, the market remained under pressure due to the ceasefire.
Iran has stated that it will resume hostilities if Israel continues its attacks on Hezbollah militants in Lebanon.
Furthermore, crude oil imports in a major Asian country plummeted by 29% in May, reaching an eight-year low, further suppressing oil prices. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that the war with Iran will reduce global oil production to 99 million barrels per day by 2026, down from a record level in 2025, while demand will also fall from 104 million barrels per day to 102.9 million barrels per day, and OECD inventories could fall to their lowest level since 2003.
According to data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), U.S. crude oil inventories fell for the eighth consecutive week last week, while gasoline inventories also decreased. For the week ending June 5, crude oil inventories decreased by 9.12 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.19 million barrels, and distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.32 million barrels. The market is awaiting the EIA weekly inventory report.
Foreign exchange market
The dollar index fell 0.09% to 99.95 on Tuesday, pressured by the fragile ceasefire in the Middle East and market anticipation of key U.S. inflation data.
US President Trump claimed Iran shot down a US military helicopter and vowed retaliation, briefly narrowing the dollar's losses. This followed a cessation of attacks between Israel and Iran at Trump's urging, but subsequent Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon that killed at least eight people complicated the peace prospects. Investors are focused on Wednesday's release of US May CPI data for further signals on the Federal Reserve's policy path; the federal funds futures market projects a 74.2% probability of a rate hike before December. The euro rose 0.07% against the dollar to $1.15435, with the market focused on the European Central Bank's expected 25 basis point rate hike at its meeting on Thursday.
The yen fell 0.12% to 160.34 yen to the dollar, still close to the 160 level that could trigger official intervention. According to Japanese media reports, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates to 1% this week and suspend its bond-buying tapering program starting in April 2027.
International News
The war reignites as the US launches retaliatory strikes against Iran; explosions occur in multiple locations in southern Iran.
At 5:00 PM Eastern Time on March 9th, the US military launched a "self-defense" strike against Iran in response to the downing of a US Apache helicopter the previous day. Explosions occurred in multiple locations in Iran's Hormozgan province, and air defense systems in some areas were activated, but there has been no official response from Iran so far. Meanwhile, US officials stated that the strike was intended to send a warning signal to Iran and that the action would not interfere with the US-Iran negotiations. (CCTV)
US airstrikes on five locations in southern Iran
According to Iranian officials, the US airstrikes targeted five locations along Iran's southern coast, primarily including military bases, naval facilities, radar stations, and artillery positions. These officials further indicated that the targets appeared to include naval bases in Sirik and Jask, air defense facilities in Bandar Abbas, and missile sites on Qeshm Island.
The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this year is approximately 74.2%.
According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by June is 98.2%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 1.8%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by July is 85.8%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 12.6%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 1.6%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by December is 25.4%, the probability of a rate hike of at least 25 basis points is 74.2%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 0.5%.
Report: US-Iran nuclear negotiations are close to reaching a framework agreement.
According to the New York Times, citing US officials and diplomatic sources familiar with the US-Iran negotiations, the differences between the two sides on four core issues are gradually narrowing: a 15-year suspension of uranium enrichment activities, diluting Iran's existing enriched uranium stockpile, dismantling most of its nuclear facilities, and expanding the scope of international inspections. However, the prospects for the negotiations remain uncertain due to renewed military tensions, including the downing of a US helicopter. Negotiators are also discussing unfreezing approximately $25 billion in frozen Iranian assets. US officials are cautiously optimistic that further detailed negotiations may resume soon, but internal political and military opposition on both sides still poses a significant risk.
Trump: The US may fund Iran's infrastructure reconstruction
ABC News, citing an interview with US President Trump, reported that Trump stated the US might fund Iran's reconstruction if the US destroyed its infrastructure. "Someone has to build all this infrastructure, new bridges, new facilities, new power plants," Trump said. "It takes a trillion dollars, maybe more. You understand, that's why we might get involved in rebuilding, right? Help them rebuild." When asked if this was a Marshall Plan targeting Iran, Trump responded "yes," adding, "But we'll take half their oil."
Iran has not submitted any new proposals to the United States.
Sources within Iran's negotiating team told Fars News Agency that Iran has not submitted any new proposals to the United States. Sky News reported today that Iran has submitted a new draft peace plan to the US, and preliminary reports indicate that the US considers the plan acceptable. Previously, Al Jazeera reported that Iran had agreed to transfer enriched uranium to a third country, a claim also denied by Iran.
Iranian parliamentary official: Armed forces are prepared to respond to any aggression.
On September 9th local time, Rezaei, spokesperson for the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, stated that the Iranian armed forces have reached the highest state of combat and defense readiness, and the damage has been repaired. He also stated that the Iranian armed forces are prepared to respond to any aggression at the highest level. (CCTV News)
The U.S. Department of Energy maintained its 2026-27 Brent crude oil price forecast unchanged, while raising its U.S. production forecast.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (STEO) released its Short-Term Energy (STEO) forecast: Brent crude oil prices are projected at $95/barrel in 2026 (previously $95/barrel) and $79/barrel in 2027 (previously $79/barrel). U.S. oil production is projected at 13.7 million barrels per day in 2026 (previously 13.6 million barrels per day) and 14.2 million barrels per day in 2027 (previously 14.1 million barrels per day). U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports are projected at 17.2 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 (previously 17 billion cubic feet per day) and 18.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2027 (previously 18.2 billion cubic feet per day).
Ursula von der Leyen submits the 21st round of EU sanctions against Russia
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on March 9 that the EU has submitted its 21st round of sanctions against Russia to member states, primarily targeting the energy, finance, and fisheries sectors. Speaking to the media at a press conference on March 9, von der Leyen said the EU proposes suspending the automatic adjustment mechanism for the cap on Russian crude oil prices until January next year, pending a stabilization of the oil market. The EU also plans to add 30 vessels to its sanctions list and, for the first time, take measures against vessels providing refueling and other services to a "shadow fleet," while also planning to restrict the sale of energy transport vessels to Russia. In the financial services and crypto-asset sectors, the EU plans to expand the scope of the transaction ban to include several Russian banks and proposes, for the first time, a third-country ban on crypto-asset services. In the trade sector, the EU plans to impose new export restrictions on items and technologies needed by the Russian military industry, focusing on metals and alloys needed in aerospace and defense sectors, and plans to add a number of import bans to further reduce European dependence on Russian products. In the fisheries sector, the EU plans to impose substantial restrictions on Russian fisheries for the first time and implement a comprehensive import ban on certain products, including cod. (Xinhua)
Domestic News
my country's largest integrated photovoltaic-hydrogen-storage project has been fully completed.
On the 10th, it was learned from the State Energy Group that the Guohua Investment Jiangsu Rudong Photovoltaic-Hydrogen-Storage Integrated Project has been fully completed. This is also the largest marine photovoltaic demonstration project integrating photovoltaic, hydrogen, and storage in China. Located in the coastal mudflats of Rudong, Jiangsu, the project has a total photovoltaic capacity of 400,000 kilowatts, and includes a newly built 220 kV shore-based booster station, a hydrogen production station with a hydrogen production capacity of 1,500 standard cubic meters per hour, and an electrochemical energy storage power station. As the first project in China to integrate power generation, hydrogen production, and energy storage, while also considering comprehensive energy utilization and coastal ecological governance, it achieves the efficient and composite utilization of "electricity-storage-hydrogen". (CCTV News)
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
