June 17th Financial Breakfast: Focusing on the Fed's first decision without a dot plot, easing rate hike expectations support gold prices; US oil falls for the fourth consecutive day and may test the $75 mark.
2026-06-17 07:30:29
On Wednesday (June 17, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $4,336 per ounce. Gold prices fluctuated higher, driven by a cooling of market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike this year. Oil prices fell for the fourth consecutive trading day as the preliminary peace agreement between the US and Iran extended the ceasefire for 60 days and reopened the Strait of Hormuz. The agreement also allowed Iran to immediately sell crude oil. US crude oil touched a three-month low of $75.51 per barrel and may test the $75 per barrel mark during the day.
U.S. stocks traded mixed on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 closing lower, dragged down by technology stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, however, hit a record closing high for the second consecutive day, rising 0.64% to 51,999.67 points. The S&P 500 fell 0.57% to 7,511.35 points, and the Nasdaq fell 1.15% to 26,376.34 points.
The technology sector led the decline (down 2.3%), with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunging 5.7%, while the financial and industrial sectors rose 1.5% and 0.7% respectively, indicating a rotation of funds towards economically sensitive sectors. SpaceX shares hit an all-time high of $225.64 during the session, closing up 4.8% at $201.80, surpassing Amazon in market capitalization and briefly exceeding Microsoft, becoming the fifth-largest company by market capitalization in the United States.
The market is cautiously awaiting the Federal Reserve's first policy meeting under new Chairman Warsh on Wednesday. The market generally expects interest rates to remain unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, but the FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December is close to 43%.
In terms of individual stocks, Olin announced its all-stock acquisition of Huntsman for $2.43 billion, causing Huntsman's stock price to plummet by 17%, while Olin's stock price fell by 5.9%; Yum! Brands sold Pizza Hut for $2.7 billion, and its stock price rose by 1.9%.
Gold prices rose on Tuesday, with spot gold closing up 0.51% at $4,331.05 an ounce, mainly driven by a cooling of market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike this year, as the preliminary peace agreement between the US and Iran, which extended the ceasefire for 60 days and reopened the Strait of Hormuz, eased inflation concerns.
The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a December rate hike has fallen from about 70% last week to 60%, as investors await the first interest rate decision since the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Warsh, took office.
In other precious metals, spot silver rose 0.08% to $70, platinum rose 2.8% to $1816.65, and palladium rose 0.7% to $1358.06.
Oil prices fell sharply for the second consecutive day on Tuesday, with Brent crude down 4.81% to $79.45 a barrel and U.S. crude futures down 5.59% to $76.62, both hitting their lowest closing prices in three months, mainly as details of a temporary agreement to end the Middle East war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz emerged – U.S. President Trump said the agreement would ensure Iran is free of nuclear weapons.
U.S. officials revealed that the agreement allows Iran to sell oil immediately after signing and extends the ceasefire reached in April for 60 days. Despite experts warning that shipping will take weeks to resume and that Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran, has imposed additional conditions, investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have lowered their oil price forecasts.
Meanwhile, macroeconomic factors such as Trump's call for peace between Russia and Ukraine potentially leading to the lifting of sanctions against Russia, the Federal Reserve's expectation of maintaining high interest rates, and the Bank of Japan's rate hike to a 31-year high are also suppressing the demand outlook. The market is awaiting the Energy Information Administration's weekly inventory report. Early morning API data showed that U.S. crude oil inventories fell for the ninth consecutive week, while gasoline inventories rose. For the week ending June 12, crude oil inventories decreased by 8.33 million barrels. Gasoline inventories increased by 2.48 million barrels, while distillate fuel inventories decreased by 10,000 barrels from the previous week.
The dollar weakened on Tuesday, weighed down by optimism surrounding a US-Iran peace deal, as investors awaited the first policy meeting of new Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh. The market widely expects interest rates to remain unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% and may remove its dovish bias, with federal funds futures indicating a roughly 61% probability of a December rate hike. The dollar index fell 0.04% to 99.51, the euro rose 0.16% against the dollar to 1.1609, and the yen fell only slightly by 0.06% to 160.43 after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 1% (the highest since 1995) as expected, despite a divided vote but a clear hawkish stance.
The Reserve Bank of Australia unanimously voted to keep the interest rate unchanged at 4.35% (the first pause in rate hikes this year), and the Australian dollar remained largely unchanged at US$0.707. The British pound and Canadian dollar saw little change, and the market was generally cautious, focusing on the Federal Reserve's policy statement and Warsh's speech on Wednesday.
The US has reportedly refused to allow Israel to see the US-Iran memorandum of understanding.
On June 16 local time, according to CNN, an Israeli source revealed that Israel had requested the text of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding from the United States for its review, but was refused. The source stated that part of the reason for the US refusal was that the Trump administration was "concerned that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu would leak the text before the memorandum is officially released." Netanyahu held a press conference on the evening of June 15 local time, barely mentioning the memorandum in his opening remarks. During the subsequent Q&A session, he stated that he and Trump "don't always agree." He also said, "We still don't know what this memorandum is." (CCTV International News)
Iranian Central Bank Governor: Memorandum of Understanding stipulates US obligation to unfreeze Iranian assets
The Governor of the Central Bank of Iran, Abdel Nasser Hemmati, stated on the 16th that regarding the unfreezing of assets frozen under the framework of the Iran-US Memorandum of Understanding, all past experiences and historical cases were fully considered during the formulation of the relevant clauses. Efforts were made to ensure that the mechanisms established in the agreement provide the highest level of protection to ensure the smooth access and use of these funds. Hemmati said that the Memorandum of Understanding clearly stipulates the obligations of the United States in unfreezing the assets, and these obligations are clear and enforceable; the United States will be required to fulfill its commitments. Hemmati also emphasized that after the Memorandum of Understanding is signed and implemented, necessary technical and banking verifications will be conducted to verify whether the assets have truly been unfrozen and are actually usable. Hemmati stated that these unfrozen funds belong to the Central Bank of Iran, and the management, allocation, and use of these funds will be determined within the framework of the central bank's legal authority. The central bank will make arrangements for the use of funds based on national needs, economic conditions, and foreign exchange priorities. (CCTV News)
Trump: The US may reinstate sanctions on Russian oil soon.
US President Donald Trump said on the 16th that the United States may soon reimpose sanctions on Russian oil. Speaking to reporters during the G7 summit in Evian-les-Bains, France, Trump said, "(Reinstating sanctions) will be implemented very soon because the oil is already flowing normally... The reason we suspended sanctions before was obviously to avoid affecting the oil supply. The conditions are now in place, and we can act as soon as possible." (Xinhua)
The US-Iran agreement allows Iran to immediately sell crude oil abroad.
Sources familiar with the matter revealed that the United States will allow Iran to immediately sell oil and fuel oil under the ceasefire agreement. The sanctions waivers for oil sales took effect immediately upon the signing of the agreement this week. The waivers also cover ancillary services necessary to facilitate oil transactions, including financial settlement, transportation, and insurance. Sources indicated that under this agreement aimed at ending the conflict, the United States will allow Iran to immediately export crude oil and refined petroleum products, thus providing Tehran with initial economic benefits and encouraging de-escalation of the conflict.
Many industries in Japan have been impacted by the naphtha shortage.
Due to the uncertainty surrounding the situation in the Middle East, the global supply of naphtha, a key raw material for petrochemical products such as inks and plastic packaging, remains tight. In Japan, which heavily relies on imported raw materials, some companies have begun to conserve resources by reducing the number of colors in packaging printing and simplifying designs. Many Japanese citizens interviewed stated that the shortage of various raw materials has already impacted numerous industries in Japan, with effects far more severe than simply turning food packaging black and white. They also expressed concern that, for several months, the Japanese government has yet to implement effective measures to address the various problems currently facing domestic businesses and ensuring people's livelihoods. (CCTV News)
Warsh may break with a 14-year tradition by refusing to submit his personal interest rate forecasts at his first FOMC meeting (dot plot).
The Federal Reserve will release its latest quarterly interest rate dot plot on June 17th. However, most Fed watchers on Wall Street expect that new Chairman Kevin Warsh will break with a 14-year tradition since 2012 by choosing not to submit his own interest rate projections. Warsh has long opposed the dot plot and other forward guidance methods, arguing that these tools limit the Fed's decision-making flexibility. He has publicly stated, "If you're not good at something, you should do less of it. These projections have been bad. My own points won't be perfect either, so I won't submit them." He believes that officials feel obligated to defend their projections after they are released, even if the economic situation has fundamentally changed. Giving up submitting personal interest rate projections does not require a vote and is considered a form of "inaction." Warsh will not abolish the dot plot system—the other 19 FOMC officials can still submit projections as usual; he simply chooses not to include his own. However, because the Fed Chairman's interest rate projections carry significant weight in the market, this subtle change could have far-reaching consequences. The market may need time to recalibrate, and each inflation and employment data point could trigger a repricing of interest rate expectations. Goldman Sachs economist David Merrick stated in a report, "Given Warsh's past criticisms of forward guidance, we expect him not to submit dot plot projections, but we are not certain." Bank of America economist Aditya Bavi holds the same expectation. Former Federal Reserve monetary affairs director Vincent Reinhart bluntly stated, "If you don't believe in this project, submitting projections is hypocritical." Former Federal Reserve monetary policy director and current Yale University professor Bill English said, "In my opinion, he probably doesn't want to submit interest rate projections. There may be others on the committee who don't like the dot plot, and they might be willing to do so." For the new chairman who has pledged to fundamentally reform the way the Federal Reserve operates, this may be an effective first step.
my country leads the world in green ship orders, with methanol heavy-duty truck sales surging 300%.
In 2026, "green fuel" was included in the government work report for the first time, becoming an important direction for cultivating new growth points in my country's green and low-carbon economy. [Microphone] In Taonan, Jilin Province, the local government utilizes corn stalk resources combined with wind power to produce hydrogen, which is then converted into green methanol through chemical processes. This new type of fuel, known as "liquid sunshine," has a carbon emission reduction of over 90% compared to traditional diesel throughout its entire life cycle and has obtained international ISCC green certification. The product is a long-term supplier to leading overseas shipping companies such as CMA CGM, with cooperation orders signed until 2031. Currently, the domestic methanol industry chain is developing strongly: in the first quarter of this year, my country's new green ship orders accounted for 80.2% of the global market share; monthly sales of methanol heavy trucks increased by over 300% year-on-year; and the number of green methanol projects planned nationwide exceeds 200. Supporting infrastructure construction is also accelerating; by the end of 2025, more than 900 methanol refueling stations have been built nationwide. At present, the methanol fuel industry still faces pain points such as high production costs and an incomplete refueling network, but policy guidance and market vitality are working together to accelerate breakthroughs. This energy transformation originating from farmland is propelling my country to gain an advantage and take the initiative in the global low-carbon competition. (CCTV Finance)
The Rise of Self-Indulgent Consumption Among Middle-Aged and Elderly
Data shows that 69.8% of internet users aged 60 and above in China now use online shopping, with more senior citizens crossing the digital threshold and integrating into the smart society. Data from the State Taxation Administration's value-added tax invoices confirms this trend: in the first half of the year, sales revenue of nutritional supplements for the elderly and mobility and hearing aids increased by 30.1% and 32.2% year-on-year, respectively, while sales of smart wearable devices surged by 32.6%. During JD.com's "618" opening sales period, sales of medical devices such as automatic ventilators and blood glucose meters increased by over 100%, and orders for nurse-provided home care services for the disabled increased more than fourfold year-on-year. Data from Tmall shows that the proportion of transactions for health supplements and clothing/cosmetics for middle-aged and elderly people continues to expand, with consumption by the 55-65-year-old new silver-haired group increasing by over 60% year-on-year. In the cosmetics category, sales of skincare products with anti-aging, repair, and soothing effects more than doubled year-on-year. From "worry-free" to "self-indulgence," online shopping for senior citizens is shifting from survival-oriented to quality-oriented. (CCTV Finance)
Key Focus Today
stock market
U.S. stocks traded mixed on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 closing lower, dragged down by technology stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, however, hit a record closing high for the second consecutive day, rising 0.64% to 51,999.67 points. The S&P 500 fell 0.57% to 7,511.35 points, and the Nasdaq fell 1.15% to 26,376.34 points.
The technology sector led the decline (down 2.3%), with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunging 5.7%, while the financial and industrial sectors rose 1.5% and 0.7% respectively, indicating a rotation of funds towards economically sensitive sectors. SpaceX shares hit an all-time high of $225.64 during the session, closing up 4.8% at $201.80, surpassing Amazon in market capitalization and briefly exceeding Microsoft, becoming the fifth-largest company by market capitalization in the United States.
The market is cautiously awaiting the Federal Reserve's first policy meeting under new Chairman Warsh on Wednesday. The market generally expects interest rates to remain unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, but the FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December is close to 43%.
In terms of individual stocks, Olin announced its all-stock acquisition of Huntsman for $2.43 billion, causing Huntsman's stock price to plummet by 17%, while Olin's stock price fell by 5.9%; Yum! Brands sold Pizza Hut for $2.7 billion, and its stock price rose by 1.9%.
Gold Market
Gold prices rose on Tuesday, with spot gold closing up 0.51% at $4,331.05 an ounce, mainly driven by a cooling of market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike this year, as the preliminary peace agreement between the US and Iran, which extended the ceasefire for 60 days and reopened the Strait of Hormuz, eased inflation concerns.
The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a December rate hike has fallen from about 70% last week to 60%, as investors await the first interest rate decision since the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Warsh, took office.
In other precious metals, spot silver rose 0.08% to $70, platinum rose 2.8% to $1816.65, and palladium rose 0.7% to $1358.06.
oil market
Oil prices fell sharply for the second consecutive day on Tuesday, with Brent crude down 4.81% to $79.45 a barrel and U.S. crude futures down 5.59% to $76.62, both hitting their lowest closing prices in three months, mainly as details of a temporary agreement to end the Middle East war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz emerged – U.S. President Trump said the agreement would ensure Iran is free of nuclear weapons.
U.S. officials revealed that the agreement allows Iran to sell oil immediately after signing and extends the ceasefire reached in April for 60 days. Despite experts warning that shipping will take weeks to resume and that Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran, has imposed additional conditions, investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have lowered their oil price forecasts.
Meanwhile, macroeconomic factors such as Trump's call for peace between Russia and Ukraine potentially leading to the lifting of sanctions against Russia, the Federal Reserve's expectation of maintaining high interest rates, and the Bank of Japan's rate hike to a 31-year high are also suppressing the demand outlook. The market is awaiting the Energy Information Administration's weekly inventory report. Early morning API data showed that U.S. crude oil inventories fell for the ninth consecutive week, while gasoline inventories rose. For the week ending June 12, crude oil inventories decreased by 8.33 million barrels. Gasoline inventories increased by 2.48 million barrels, while distillate fuel inventories decreased by 10,000 barrels from the previous week.
Foreign exchange market
The dollar weakened on Tuesday, weighed down by optimism surrounding a US-Iran peace deal, as investors awaited the first policy meeting of new Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh. The market widely expects interest rates to remain unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% and may remove its dovish bias, with federal funds futures indicating a roughly 61% probability of a December rate hike. The dollar index fell 0.04% to 99.51, the euro rose 0.16% against the dollar to 1.1609, and the yen fell only slightly by 0.06% to 160.43 after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 1% (the highest since 1995) as expected, despite a divided vote but a clear hawkish stance.
The Reserve Bank of Australia unanimously voted to keep the interest rate unchanged at 4.35% (the first pause in rate hikes this year), and the Australian dollar remained largely unchanged at US$0.707. The British pound and Canadian dollar saw little change, and the market was generally cautious, focusing on the Federal Reserve's policy statement and Warsh's speech on Wednesday.
International News
The US has reportedly refused to allow Israel to see the US-Iran memorandum of understanding.
On June 16 local time, according to CNN, an Israeli source revealed that Israel had requested the text of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding from the United States for its review, but was refused. The source stated that part of the reason for the US refusal was that the Trump administration was "concerned that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu would leak the text before the memorandum is officially released." Netanyahu held a press conference on the evening of June 15 local time, barely mentioning the memorandum in his opening remarks. During the subsequent Q&A session, he stated that he and Trump "don't always agree." He also said, "We still don't know what this memorandum is." (CCTV International News)
Iranian Central Bank Governor: Memorandum of Understanding stipulates US obligation to unfreeze Iranian assets
The Governor of the Central Bank of Iran, Abdel Nasser Hemmati, stated on the 16th that regarding the unfreezing of assets frozen under the framework of the Iran-US Memorandum of Understanding, all past experiences and historical cases were fully considered during the formulation of the relevant clauses. Efforts were made to ensure that the mechanisms established in the agreement provide the highest level of protection to ensure the smooth access and use of these funds. Hemmati said that the Memorandum of Understanding clearly stipulates the obligations of the United States in unfreezing the assets, and these obligations are clear and enforceable; the United States will be required to fulfill its commitments. Hemmati also emphasized that after the Memorandum of Understanding is signed and implemented, necessary technical and banking verifications will be conducted to verify whether the assets have truly been unfrozen and are actually usable. Hemmati stated that these unfrozen funds belong to the Central Bank of Iran, and the management, allocation, and use of these funds will be determined within the framework of the central bank's legal authority. The central bank will make arrangements for the use of funds based on national needs, economic conditions, and foreign exchange priorities. (CCTV News)
Trump: The US may reinstate sanctions on Russian oil soon.
US President Donald Trump said on the 16th that the United States may soon reimpose sanctions on Russian oil. Speaking to reporters during the G7 summit in Evian-les-Bains, France, Trump said, "(Reinstating sanctions) will be implemented very soon because the oil is already flowing normally... The reason we suspended sanctions before was obviously to avoid affecting the oil supply. The conditions are now in place, and we can act as soon as possible." (Xinhua)
The US-Iran agreement allows Iran to immediately sell crude oil abroad.
Sources familiar with the matter revealed that the United States will allow Iran to immediately sell oil and fuel oil under the ceasefire agreement. The sanctions waivers for oil sales took effect immediately upon the signing of the agreement this week. The waivers also cover ancillary services necessary to facilitate oil transactions, including financial settlement, transportation, and insurance. Sources indicated that under this agreement aimed at ending the conflict, the United States will allow Iran to immediately export crude oil and refined petroleum products, thus providing Tehran with initial economic benefits and encouraging de-escalation of the conflict.
Many industries in Japan have been impacted by the naphtha shortage.
Due to the uncertainty surrounding the situation in the Middle East, the global supply of naphtha, a key raw material for petrochemical products such as inks and plastic packaging, remains tight. In Japan, which heavily relies on imported raw materials, some companies have begun to conserve resources by reducing the number of colors in packaging printing and simplifying designs. Many Japanese citizens interviewed stated that the shortage of various raw materials has already impacted numerous industries in Japan, with effects far more severe than simply turning food packaging black and white. They also expressed concern that, for several months, the Japanese government has yet to implement effective measures to address the various problems currently facing domestic businesses and ensuring people's livelihoods. (CCTV News)
Warsh may break with a 14-year tradition by refusing to submit his personal interest rate forecasts at his first FOMC meeting (dot plot).
The Federal Reserve will release its latest quarterly interest rate dot plot on June 17th. However, most Fed watchers on Wall Street expect that new Chairman Kevin Warsh will break with a 14-year tradition since 2012 by choosing not to submit his own interest rate projections. Warsh has long opposed the dot plot and other forward guidance methods, arguing that these tools limit the Fed's decision-making flexibility. He has publicly stated, "If you're not good at something, you should do less of it. These projections have been bad. My own points won't be perfect either, so I won't submit them." He believes that officials feel obligated to defend their projections after they are released, even if the economic situation has fundamentally changed. Giving up submitting personal interest rate projections does not require a vote and is considered a form of "inaction." Warsh will not abolish the dot plot system—the other 19 FOMC officials can still submit projections as usual; he simply chooses not to include his own. However, because the Fed Chairman's interest rate projections carry significant weight in the market, this subtle change could have far-reaching consequences. The market may need time to recalibrate, and each inflation and employment data point could trigger a repricing of interest rate expectations. Goldman Sachs economist David Merrick stated in a report, "Given Warsh's past criticisms of forward guidance, we expect him not to submit dot plot projections, but we are not certain." Bank of America economist Aditya Bavi holds the same expectation. Former Federal Reserve monetary affairs director Vincent Reinhart bluntly stated, "If you don't believe in this project, submitting projections is hypocritical." Former Federal Reserve monetary policy director and current Yale University professor Bill English said, "In my opinion, he probably doesn't want to submit interest rate projections. There may be others on the committee who don't like the dot plot, and they might be willing to do so." For the new chairman who has pledged to fundamentally reform the way the Federal Reserve operates, this may be an effective first step.
Domestic News
my country leads the world in green ship orders, with methanol heavy-duty truck sales surging 300%.
In 2026, "green fuel" was included in the government work report for the first time, becoming an important direction for cultivating new growth points in my country's green and low-carbon economy. [Microphone] In Taonan, Jilin Province, the local government utilizes corn stalk resources combined with wind power to produce hydrogen, which is then converted into green methanol through chemical processes. This new type of fuel, known as "liquid sunshine," has a carbon emission reduction of over 90% compared to traditional diesel throughout its entire life cycle and has obtained international ISCC green certification. The product is a long-term supplier to leading overseas shipping companies such as CMA CGM, with cooperation orders signed until 2031. Currently, the domestic methanol industry chain is developing strongly: in the first quarter of this year, my country's new green ship orders accounted for 80.2% of the global market share; monthly sales of methanol heavy trucks increased by over 300% year-on-year; and the number of green methanol projects planned nationwide exceeds 200. Supporting infrastructure construction is also accelerating; by the end of 2025, more than 900 methanol refueling stations have been built nationwide. At present, the methanol fuel industry still faces pain points such as high production costs and an incomplete refueling network, but policy guidance and market vitality are working together to accelerate breakthroughs. This energy transformation originating from farmland is propelling my country to gain an advantage and take the initiative in the global low-carbon competition. (CCTV Finance)
The Rise of Self-Indulgent Consumption Among Middle-Aged and Elderly
Data shows that 69.8% of internet users aged 60 and above in China now use online shopping, with more senior citizens crossing the digital threshold and integrating into the smart society. Data from the State Taxation Administration's value-added tax invoices confirms this trend: in the first half of the year, sales revenue of nutritional supplements for the elderly and mobility and hearing aids increased by 30.1% and 32.2% year-on-year, respectively, while sales of smart wearable devices surged by 32.6%. During JD.com's "618" opening sales period, sales of medical devices such as automatic ventilators and blood glucose meters increased by over 100%, and orders for nurse-provided home care services for the disabled increased more than fourfold year-on-year. Data from Tmall shows that the proportion of transactions for health supplements and clothing/cosmetics for middle-aged and elderly people continues to expand, with consumption by the 55-65-year-old new silver-haired group increasing by over 60% year-on-year. In the cosmetics category, sales of skincare products with anti-aging, repair, and soothing effects more than doubled year-on-year. From "worry-free" to "self-indulgence," online shopping for senior citizens is shifting from survival-oriented to quality-oriented. (CCTV Finance)
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
