Gold prices stabilized above $4,330, while silver prices approached $70. The market awaited Warsh's first Fed policy statement.
2026-06-17 23:26:28
On Wednesday (June 17) in early US trading, spot gold edged higher while spot silver edged lower; international crude oil prices remained below $80 per barrel, and US stock index futures rose slightly as traders awaited the results of today's Federal Reserve interest rate meeting. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading around $4350.5 per ounce, up 0.45% on the day; spot silver was quoted at $70.565, down 0.79% on the day.
The current macroeconomic environment presents a divergent picture: energy inflation has cooled somewhat, but the risk of the Federal Reserve maintaining its hawkish interest rate hike stance remains. Iranian oil tankers have resumed shipping, and the US and Iran have reached a preliminary consensus on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, thus putting continued pressure on Brent crude oil prices below the $80 mark. Gold prices have stabilized above $4300, but are still consolidating within the $4000-$4500 range. The market is awaiting the Federal Reserve's policy statement, the dot plot of economic projections, and the first post-meeting press conference since Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh took office.
The US and Iran reached a preliminary agreement, raising market expectations that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen to navigation and oil supply could return to normal. However, the agreement has not yet been finalized. A full resumption of Iranian oil exports faces numerous practical obstacles, including the clearing of mines from shipping lanes and the restoration of normal supply chains. Therefore, current market sentiment reflects expectations of cooling inflation rather than geopolitical safe-haven demand: oil prices have fallen significantly from their mid-June peak, upward pressure on US Treasury yields has eased, and stock index futures have rebounded slightly; while positive news regarding peace has lowered energy inflation, it has weakened safe-haven buying of gold, limiting its upside potential.
The market's focus at this Federal Reserve meeting is not on the interest rate decision itself—trading has already fully priced in the expectation of "keeping interest rates unchanged." The meeting on June 16-17 will release a new summary of economic projections, and investors will be watching three key signals: whether the dot plot removes the expectation of a final rate cut in 2026, whether it signals no rate cuts throughout the year, or whether it hints at a resumption of rate hikes this year.
If the Federal Reserve releases hawkish expectations, the rebound in gold prices above $4,300 will be tested, and the pressure on silver to hold the $69-$70 range will also increase. Conversely, if Warsh's remarks at the press conference are dovish, it will consolidate the bullish precious metals market brought about by the decline in crude oil prices and the drop in US Treasury yields at the beginning of this week.
Ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision, U.S. stock index futures opened slightly higher: S&P 500 futures rose 0.1%, Nasdaq futures gained 0.5%, and Dow futures were flat. The chip sector showed strength in pre-market trading; influenced by news of easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, energy prices have fallen sharply from their mid-June highs, with crude oil becoming the core variable influencing the performance of major assets.
Key international commodity market conditions: WTI crude oil in New York traded in the middle of the $75 range, while Brent crude oil was below $80 per barrel; the US dollar index strengthened slightly; the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield fell in early trading, and there were no real-time intraday quotes available.
Technical Analysis
spot gold
The next upside target for the bulls: if gold prices hold above the $4,350-$4,364 resistance zone, a sustained breakout would target $4,400, with the ultimate target at the upper end of the range at $4,500.
Short-term downside target for the bears: a break below the $4,306 support level, with further downside to $4,182, and key bottom support at $4,000.
The first resistance level is $4,350, and the second resistance level is $4,364; the first support level is $4,306, and the second support level is $4,280.
spot silver
Bullish upside target: Silver price breaks through the $70.59-$72.10 resistance zone, stabilizes and then targets $78.60, with a medium-term target of $80.
Downside targets for short sellers: A break below the $69.08 support level would lead to a deeper target of $68, with a long-term target of $60.
The first resistance level is $70.59, and the second resistance level is $72.10; the first support level is $69.08, and the second support level is $68.
The current macroeconomic environment presents a divergent picture: energy inflation has cooled somewhat, but the risk of the Federal Reserve maintaining its hawkish interest rate hike stance remains. Iranian oil tankers have resumed shipping, and the US and Iran have reached a preliminary consensus on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, thus putting continued pressure on Brent crude oil prices below the $80 mark. Gold prices have stabilized above $4300, but are still consolidating within the $4000-$4500 range. The market is awaiting the Federal Reserve's policy statement, the dot plot of economic projections, and the first post-meeting press conference since Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh took office.
The US and Iran reached a preliminary agreement, raising market expectations that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen to navigation and oil supply could return to normal. However, the agreement has not yet been finalized. A full resumption of Iranian oil exports faces numerous practical obstacles, including the clearing of mines from shipping lanes and the restoration of normal supply chains. Therefore, current market sentiment reflects expectations of cooling inflation rather than geopolitical safe-haven demand: oil prices have fallen significantly from their mid-June peak, upward pressure on US Treasury yields has eased, and stock index futures have rebounded slightly; while positive news regarding peace has lowered energy inflation, it has weakened safe-haven buying of gold, limiting its upside potential.
The market's focus at this Federal Reserve meeting is not on the interest rate decision itself—trading has already fully priced in the expectation of "keeping interest rates unchanged." The meeting on June 16-17 will release a new summary of economic projections, and investors will be watching three key signals: whether the dot plot removes the expectation of a final rate cut in 2026, whether it signals no rate cuts throughout the year, or whether it hints at a resumption of rate hikes this year.
If the Federal Reserve releases hawkish expectations, the rebound in gold prices above $4,300 will be tested, and the pressure on silver to hold the $69-$70 range will also increase. Conversely, if Warsh's remarks at the press conference are dovish, it will consolidate the bullish precious metals market brought about by the decline in crude oil prices and the drop in US Treasury yields at the beginning of this week.
Ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision, U.S. stock index futures opened slightly higher: S&P 500 futures rose 0.1%, Nasdaq futures gained 0.5%, and Dow futures were flat. The chip sector showed strength in pre-market trading; influenced by news of easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, energy prices have fallen sharply from their mid-June highs, with crude oil becoming the core variable influencing the performance of major assets.
Key international commodity market conditions: WTI crude oil in New York traded in the middle of the $75 range, while Brent crude oil was below $80 per barrel; the US dollar index strengthened slightly; the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield fell in early trading, and there were no real-time intraday quotes available.
Technical Analysis
spot gold
The next upside target for the bulls: if gold prices hold above the $4,350-$4,364 resistance zone, a sustained breakout would target $4,400, with the ultimate target at the upper end of the range at $4,500.
Short-term downside target for the bears: a break below the $4,306 support level, with further downside to $4,182, and key bottom support at $4,000.
The first resistance level is $4,350, and the second resistance level is $4,364; the first support level is $4,306, and the second support level is $4,280.
spot silver
Bullish upside target: Silver price breaks through the $70.59-$72.10 resistance zone, stabilizes and then targets $78.60, with a medium-term target of $80.
Downside targets for short sellers: A break below the $69.08 support level would lead to a deeper target of $68, with a long-term target of $60.
The first resistance level is $70.59, and the second resistance level is $72.10; the first support level is $69.08, and the second support level is $68.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
