Chicago Fed President Goolsby's hawkish remarks helped the dollar index hold steady near a 13-month high.
2026-06-26 11:36:55
On Friday (June 26) during the Asian session, the US dollar index fluctuated higher, holding steady near a 13-month high, and is currently trading around 101.50.
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsby said in a media interview on Thursday that inflation remains the Fed’s top concern, warning that despite some recent signs of improvement, core price pressures are still heading in the wrong direction.
This statement continues Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's cautious stance on the interest rate path and reinforces the signal that the central bank will not easily adjust its policy before the data becomes clear.
In the interview, Goolsby stated bluntly: "If we look at core inflation, it is still far above the target level, and the trend is not in the right direction. We must see improvement."
He added that while there have been some "bright spots," policymakers still have much work to do before inflation is considered under control.
This statement highlights widespread concerns within the Federal Reserve about sticky inflation.
Although the interim peace agreement between the US and Iran had previously pushed oil prices back to pre-war levels, Goolsby emphasized that service inflation remained high, and the slowdown in wage growth "does not guarantee that inflation will fall."
Goolsby specifically pointed out the trend of inflation in the service sector.
He acknowledged some “slight improvement” in services inflation, calling it an indicator that needs continued monitoring. “You’ve seen a slight improvement in services inflation, and I’ve been emphasizing that this is what we’d like to see,” he said.
However, he also emphasized that progress is still insufficient and it is far from time to let down our guard.
Goolsby concluded, "Between the Fed's dual mandate—inflation and employment—inflation is clearly the problem."
This statement clearly indicates that, at the current stage, controlling inflation is a significantly higher priority than supporting employment.
Despite Goolsby's hawkish stance on inflation assessments, he declined to provide specific guidance on next steps in policy action.
He declined to speculate on whether the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates or keep them unchanged, expressing agreement with Fed Chairman Warsh's approach of avoiding unnecessary market speculation about the future path of interest rates.
This stance continues the signal Warsh has been sending in recent public appearances: central banks will not easily reveal their policy direction before the data is clear.
Goolsby's remarks reinforced the consensus within the Federal Reserve that policymakers are firmly focused on restoring price stability while leaving future decisions entirely dependent on subsequent economic data.
According to the daily chart, the US dollar index maintains a strong bullish trend overall, with the price steadily rising from the recent low of 97.62 to a new high of 101.80. The short-term 20-day moving average (MA20), medium-term MA50 and MA100, and long-term MA200 are all diverging upwards, forming a multi-tiered support structure. Each pullback has been quickly recovered using the short-term moving averages, with the lows consistently rising, indicating a complete upward trend.
In terms of indicators, the MACD remains bullish, with the DIFF line continuing to run above the DEA line and the red energy bars steadily increasing in volume, indicating that the bullish momentum has not weakened significantly. The RSI value is 72.89, approaching the overbought threshold of 80, suggesting a short-term technical pullback for consolidation, but no top divergence reversal signal has yet appeared.
(US Dollar Index Daily Chart, Source: FX678)
At 11:36 AM Beijing time on June 26, the US dollar index was at 101.47.
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsby said in a media interview on Thursday that inflation remains the Fed’s top concern, warning that despite some recent signs of improvement, core price pressures are still heading in the wrong direction.
This statement continues Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's cautious stance on the interest rate path and reinforces the signal that the central bank will not easily adjust its policy before the data becomes clear.
Inflation remains the core issue: Goolsby makes his position clear.
In the interview, Goolsby stated bluntly: "If we look at core inflation, it is still far above the target level, and the trend is not in the right direction. We must see improvement."
He added that while there have been some "bright spots," policymakers still have much work to do before inflation is considered under control.
This statement highlights widespread concerns within the Federal Reserve about sticky inflation.
Although the interim peace agreement between the US and Iran had previously pushed oil prices back to pre-war levels, Goolsby emphasized that service inflation remained high, and the slowdown in wage growth "does not guarantee that inflation will fall."
Services inflation: Insufficient progress, far from the time for easing.
Goolsby specifically pointed out the trend of inflation in the service sector.
He acknowledged some “slight improvement” in services inflation, calling it an indicator that needs continued monitoring. “You’ve seen a slight improvement in services inflation, and I’ve been emphasizing that this is what we’d like to see,” he said.
However, he also emphasized that progress is still insufficient and it is far from time to let down our guard.
Goolsby concluded, "Between the Fed's dual mandate—inflation and employment—inflation is clearly the problem."
This statement clearly indicates that, at the current stage, controlling inflation is a significantly higher priority than supporting employment.
Interest Rate Path: Refuses to provide forward guidance, continuing Warsh's cautious approach.
Despite Goolsby's hawkish stance on inflation assessments, he declined to provide specific guidance on next steps in policy action.
He declined to speculate on whether the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates or keep them unchanged, expressing agreement with Fed Chairman Warsh's approach of avoiding unnecessary market speculation about the future path of interest rates.
This stance continues the signal Warsh has been sending in recent public appearances: central banks will not easily reveal their policy direction before the data is clear.
Goolsby's remarks reinforced the consensus within the Federal Reserve that policymakers are firmly focused on restoring price stability while leaving future decisions entirely dependent on subsequent economic data.
Technical Analysis
According to the daily chart, the US dollar index maintains a strong bullish trend overall, with the price steadily rising from the recent low of 97.62 to a new high of 101.80. The short-term 20-day moving average (MA20), medium-term MA50 and MA100, and long-term MA200 are all diverging upwards, forming a multi-tiered support structure. Each pullback has been quickly recovered using the short-term moving averages, with the lows consistently rising, indicating a complete upward trend.
In terms of indicators, the MACD remains bullish, with the DIFF line continuing to run above the DEA line and the red energy bars steadily increasing in volume, indicating that the bullish momentum has not weakened significantly. The RSI value is 72.89, approaching the overbought threshold of 80, suggesting a short-term technical pullback for consolidation, but no top divergence reversal signal has yet appeared.
(US Dollar Index Daily Chart, Source: FX678)
At 11:36 AM Beijing time on June 26, the US dollar index was at 101.47.
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