A stronger US dollar pressured a euro rebound, and EUR/USD continued its weak and volatile pattern after breaking below 1.1400.
2026-06-30 16:15:14
The euro weakened against the dollar during Asian trading hours, falling below the 1.1400 level and ending a three-day rebound, returning to its recent consolidation range near its lows. The current price action, after rebounding from its lows since May 2025, shows waning momentum, indicating significant resistance to further upward movement.
From a fundamental perspective, the renewed support for the US dollar index is one of the core factors contributing to the weakness of EUR/USD. Amidst escalating geopolitical risks, market demand for the safe-haven dollar has rebounded. Simultaneously, market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates or even raise them further continue to build, keeping dollar assets highly attractive and exerting sustained downward pressure on the euro.
Furthermore, policy expectations from the European Central Bank also put pressure on the euro. Market bets on future ECB rate hikes have clearly decreased, and the probability of further tightening in 2026 has been revised downward, narrowing the euro's interest rate advantage and thus weakening its support for the dollar. Geopolitically, the ongoing tensions between the US and Iran and escalating regional conflicts continue to fuel market risk aversion, but funds are flowing more towards the dollar than the euro, strengthening the dollar's relative advantage.
From a market structure perspective, EUR/USD is still in a phase of decline after its rebound was thwarted, with short-term upward momentum clearly weakening and prices returning to below the key technical resistance zone.
From a daily chart perspective, the exchange rate maintains a generally bearish consolidation pattern in the medium term, with rebounds seen more as corrective movements than trend reversals. The key support level is currently around 1.1380 ; a break below this level would see 1.1335 become the next key support and a key level separating bullish and bearish sentiment. A further drop below this level could trigger a deeper continuation of the downtrend. Resistance is concentrated at the psychological level of 1.1500 and the 200-period moving average area at 1.1538 , which forms the current main resistance zone for any rebound.
From a 4-hour chart perspective, the price continues to trade below the 200-period EMA, indicating an overall bearish trend, although momentum indicators suggest a slowdown in downward momentum. The RSI has rebounded to around 49, within the neutral range, suggesting the market has entered a consolidation phase. While the MACD indicator is slightly positive, its momentum is limited and insufficient to support a trend reversal. If the price breaks below 1.1380, it may retest the 1.1335 area; if it reclaims 1.1500, the short-term structure is likely to shift to a corrective consolidation.
Editor's Summary:
In summary, the EUR/USD pair remains under pressure from both a strong US dollar and cooling expectations regarding the European Central Bank's policy stance, maintaining a generally bearish and volatile structure. While short-term technical indicators suggest weakening momentum, a clear reversal signal has not yet emerged. Future price movements will depend on safe-haven demand for the US dollar and changes in interest rate expectations. Without fundamental improvements, the exchange rate is likely to continue fluctuating within the 1.1335-1.1500 range, with the risk of further downside remaining.
From a fundamental perspective, the renewed support for the US dollar index is one of the core factors contributing to the weakness of EUR/USD. Amidst escalating geopolitical risks, market demand for the safe-haven dollar has rebounded. Simultaneously, market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates or even raise them further continue to build, keeping dollar assets highly attractive and exerting sustained downward pressure on the euro.
Furthermore, policy expectations from the European Central Bank also put pressure on the euro. Market bets on future ECB rate hikes have clearly decreased, and the probability of further tightening in 2026 has been revised downward, narrowing the euro's interest rate advantage and thus weakening its support for the dollar. Geopolitically, the ongoing tensions between the US and Iran and escalating regional conflicts continue to fuel market risk aversion, but funds are flowing more towards the dollar than the euro, strengthening the dollar's relative advantage.
From a market structure perspective, EUR/USD is still in a phase of decline after its rebound was thwarted, with short-term upward momentum clearly weakening and prices returning to below the key technical resistance zone.
From a daily chart perspective, the exchange rate maintains a generally bearish consolidation pattern in the medium term, with rebounds seen more as corrective movements than trend reversals. The key support level is currently around 1.1380 ; a break below this level would see 1.1335 become the next key support and a key level separating bullish and bearish sentiment. A further drop below this level could trigger a deeper continuation of the downtrend. Resistance is concentrated at the psychological level of 1.1500 and the 200-period moving average area at 1.1538 , which forms the current main resistance zone for any rebound.
From a 4-hour chart perspective, the price continues to trade below the 200-period EMA, indicating an overall bearish trend, although momentum indicators suggest a slowdown in downward momentum. The RSI has rebounded to around 49, within the neutral range, suggesting the market has entered a consolidation phase. While the MACD indicator is slightly positive, its momentum is limited and insufficient to support a trend reversal. If the price breaks below 1.1380, it may retest the 1.1335 area; if it reclaims 1.1500, the short-term structure is likely to shift to a corrective consolidation.
Editor's Summary:
In summary, the EUR/USD pair remains under pressure from both a strong US dollar and cooling expectations regarding the European Central Bank's policy stance, maintaining a generally bearish and volatile structure. While short-term technical indicators suggest weakening momentum, a clear reversal signal has not yet emerged. Future price movements will depend on safe-haven demand for the US dollar and changes in interest rate expectations. Without fundamental improvements, the exchange rate is likely to continue fluctuating within the 1.1335-1.1500 range, with the risk of further downside remaining.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
