Indirect talks between the US and Iran began in Doha on Wednesday, with cautious optimism churning the energy market.
2026-06-30 22:07:56
The delegation for this trip consisted of Steve Witkov, the Trump administration's special envoy for Middle East affairs, and Jared Kushner, the president's son-in-law.
The delegation's departure came shortly after a weekend of military clashes in the Persian Gulf, stemming from various parties' push to resume shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which led to a fierce standoff between the US and Iran.
The Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs made it clear that the US personnel would not negotiate directly with Iranian diplomats during their stay in Doha. The entire communication process relied on the host country as a transit point, and no high-level officials from either the US or Iran were present.
Although there are historical precedents for indirect negotiations between the US and Iran, the first two rounds of consultations broke down, leading to Israel's 12-day military action against Iran in 2025 and the ongoing conflict in Iran.
Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Ansari said at a regular press conference that Iran currently has no plans for high-level participation, but technical cooperation between the two sides has never been interrupted since the outbreak of the conflict.
Iran also sent a delegation to Doha this week, but drew a red line for negotiations in advance.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bagaei stated on Tuesday that Iran will not arrange any meetings between its personnel and the United States in the coming days. The trip to Doha was solely for separate communication with Qatar regarding the implementation of the memorandum of understanding, with the core issue being the unfreezing of Iranian assets frozen overseas.
Despite the US and Iran's refusal to hold face-to-face talks, Qatar remains an important medium for both sides to convey their positions. The two countries can still indirectly exchange negotiating demands through the host country, thus preserving a buffer for future negotiations.
Earlier this month, the US and Iran reached a framework agreement for a temporary ceasefire, which set several hard requirements: Iran must dilute its domestic enriched uranium stockpile, the US must simultaneously lift its oil sanctions, and freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz must be restored.
At the same time, both sides are given a sixty-day grace period to negotiate a long-term ceasefire agreement that resolves all differences.
Although the Strait of Hormuz is located in the territorial waters of Iran and Oman, it is recognized as a core international shipping route. Before the conflict broke out on February 28, one-fifth of the world's seaborne crude oil was transported through this strait.
Following the outbreak of the conflict, Iran launched multiple attacks on ships in the shipping lanes and continued to issue blockade threats, bringing oil tanker and cargo ship traffic to a near standstill and directly triggering a global energy supply crisis.
Last week, several countries pushed for the opening of the waters on the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz to ensure two-way passage for ships in the Persian Gulf. During the standoff, the US and Iran launched military strikes in turn, and the market is generally worried that the continued conflict will completely disrupt the pace of ceasefire negotiations.
Iran has twice attacked ships navigating the Strait of Hormuz. One oil tanker, fully loaded with Qatari crude oil, was attacked, prompting a retaliatory airstrike by the U.S. military. On Sunday, Iran again deployed drones and missiles to strike Bahrain and Kuwait across the border, further escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
The fluctuations in Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts will immediately be reflected in the crude oil market. As the choke point for global crude oil transportation, the unobstructedness of the Strait of Hormuz is a core geopolitical factor that determines oil price fluctuations.
If shipping through the Straits is disrupted, the market will significantly factor in geopolitical risk premiums, driving up Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices rapidly. If the Doha negotiations signal a de-escalation and shipping routes return to normal, the risk premiums will quickly fall, and oil prices will weaken accordingly.
The current situation of the US and Iran engaging in both negotiations and fighting remains unchanged, and Iranian cross-border attacks and US retaliatory actions could destroy market expectations of easing at any time.
As long as the threat of a blockade of the Straits cannot be completely eliminated, the crude oil market will remain highly volatile. Short-term oil price movements will be entirely driven by the situation in the Middle East. Any news of an escalation of conflict will attract bullish funds to enter the market, continuously pushing up international crude oil prices.
Although Iranian officials have stated that they will not hold any direct meetings with the United States, delegations from both countries have arrived in Doha simultaneously to hold separate consultations with Qatari mediators. The communication method follows the indirect third-party relay model previously pioneered by Oman.
The current market focus is on the easing expectations released by the negotiations, which will limit the potential for a significant short-term rebound in crude oil prices. The limited upward momentum in oil prices will weaken concerns about imported inflation, alleviate market pricing of the Fed's continued tightening, and provide support for gold prices in the medium to long term.
However, attention should be paid to the potential disruption caused by the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran. If the conflict escalates again, geopolitical safe-haven buying will simultaneously push up the prices of crude oil and gold.
The delegation's departure came shortly after a weekend of military clashes in the Persian Gulf, stemming from various parties' push to resume shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which led to a fierce standoff between the US and Iran.
The Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs made it clear that the US personnel would not negotiate directly with Iranian diplomats during their stay in Doha. The entire communication process relied on the host country as a transit point, and no high-level officials from either the US or Iran were present.
Although there are historical precedents for indirect negotiations between the US and Iran, the first two rounds of consultations broke down, leading to Israel's 12-day military action against Iran in 2025 and the ongoing conflict in Iran.
Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Ansari said at a regular press conference that Iran currently has no plans for high-level participation, but technical cooperation between the two sides has never been interrupted since the outbreak of the conflict.
Iran has drawn its bottom line in negotiations, stating it will only hold separate talks with Qatar regarding the unfreezing of assets.
Iran also sent a delegation to Doha this week, but drew a red line for negotiations in advance.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bagaei stated on Tuesday that Iran will not arrange any meetings between its personnel and the United States in the coming days. The trip to Doha was solely for separate communication with Qatar regarding the implementation of the memorandum of understanding, with the core issue being the unfreezing of Iranian assets frozen overseas.
Despite the US and Iran's refusal to hold face-to-face talks, Qatar remains an important medium for both sides to convey their positions. The two countries can still indirectly exchange negotiating demands through the host country, thus preserving a buffer for future negotiations.
The interim agreement between the US and Iran outlines their core demands, with the Taiwan Strait being a key bargaining chip.
Earlier this month, the US and Iran reached a framework agreement for a temporary ceasefire, which set several hard requirements: Iran must dilute its domestic enriched uranium stockpile, the US must simultaneously lift its oil sanctions, and freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz must be restored.
At the same time, both sides are given a sixty-day grace period to negotiate a long-term ceasefire agreement that resolves all differences.
Although the Strait of Hormuz is located in the territorial waters of Iran and Oman, it is recognized as a core international shipping route. Before the conflict broke out on February 28, one-fifth of the world's seaborne crude oil was transported through this strait.
Following the outbreak of the conflict, Iran launched multiple attacks on ships in the shipping lanes and continued to issue blockade threats, bringing oil tanker and cargo ship traffic to a near standstill and directly triggering a global energy supply crisis.
The continued mutual attacks between the US and Iran are disrupting the armistice negotiations due to geopolitical friction.
Last week, several countries pushed for the opening of the waters on the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz to ensure two-way passage for ships in the Persian Gulf. During the standoff, the US and Iran launched military strikes in turn, and the market is generally worried that the continued conflict will completely disrupt the pace of ceasefire negotiations.
Iran has twice attacked ships navigating the Strait of Hormuz. One oil tanker, fully loaded with Qatari crude oil, was attacked, prompting a retaliatory airstrike by the U.S. military. On Sunday, Iran again deployed drones and missiles to strike Bahrain and Kuwait across the border, further escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
The situation in the Taiwan Strait is directly linked to international oil prices, and short-term fluctuations are unlikely to stop.
The fluctuations in Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts will immediately be reflected in the crude oil market. As the choke point for global crude oil transportation, the unobstructedness of the Strait of Hormuz is a core geopolitical factor that determines oil price fluctuations.
If shipping through the Straits is disrupted, the market will significantly factor in geopolitical risk premiums, driving up Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices rapidly. If the Doha negotiations signal a de-escalation and shipping routes return to normal, the risk premiums will quickly fall, and oil prices will weaken accordingly.
The current situation of the US and Iran engaging in both negotiations and fighting remains unchanged, and Iranian cross-border attacks and US retaliatory actions could destroy market expectations of easing at any time.
As long as the threat of a blockade of the Straits cannot be completely eliminated, the crude oil market will remain highly volatile. Short-term oil price movements will be entirely driven by the situation in the Middle East. Any news of an escalation of conflict will attract bullish funds to enter the market, continuously pushing up international crude oil prices.
Although Iranian officials have stated that they will not hold any direct meetings with the United States, delegations from both countries have arrived in Doha simultaneously to hold separate consultations with Qatari mediators. The communication method follows the indirect third-party relay model previously pioneered by Oman.
The current market focus is on the easing expectations released by the negotiations, which will limit the potential for a significant short-term rebound in crude oil prices. The limited upward momentum in oil prices will weaken concerns about imported inflation, alleviate market pricing of the Fed's continued tightening, and provide support for gold prices in the medium to long term.
However, attention should be paid to the potential disruption caused by the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran. If the conflict escalates again, geopolitical safe-haven buying will simultaneously push up the prices of crude oil and gold.
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