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2026-07-03 09:37:28
[US Non-Farm Payroll Data Dampens Fed Rate Hike Expectations, Gold Prices Continue to Rise Approach $4200] 1. On Thursday (July 2), international gold prices surged by over 2%, with spot gold closing at $4123.61 per ounce. On Friday (July 3) in early Asian trading, spot gold continued its upward trend, rising as much as 1.71% to $4194.17 per ounce by 09:30, a new high since June 23. Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that US non-farm payrolls increased by only 57,000 in June, far below the market expectation of 110,000. Meanwhile, the May figure was revised down from 115,000 to 85,000, further reinforcing the signal of a slowing labor market. 2. The weak employment data cooled market expectations for a Fed rate hike this year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders now expect the probability of a rate hike before September to drop from about 66% before the data release to around 51%, and the probability of a rate hike this year has also fallen from around 85% to 76%. The dollar index subsequently fell 0.5%, moving away from its more than one-year high reached last week, making dollar-denominated gold more attractive to investors holding other currencies. 3. David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures, said, "Waker-than-expected employment data suggests a lower probability of a rate hike later this year. It's well known that gold tends to perform better in a low-interest-rate environment." 4. Furthermore, the World Gold Council stated that central banks returned to buying mode in May, with official gold reserves increasing by a net 41 tons that month, providing some fundamental support for gold prices. 5. From a technical perspective, gold prices found support from bargain hunters below the $4,000 level. Two doji candlesticks on the daily chart suggest a short-term top. The MACD has formed a golden cross, and the KDJ golden cross is performing well. Gold prices are expected to challenge the upper trendline of the recent downtrend channel around $4,240, and in the medium term, they may even target the 200-day moving average around $4,482.
