Live Updates > Live Update Details
2026-07-13 11:31:12
[Goldman Sachs: Gulf Attacks Highlight Short-Term Oil Supply Disruption Risks; Pipeline Expansion May Pressure Long-Term Oil Prices] 1. In its latest market commentary, Goldman Sachs points out that the recent series of attacks near the Strait of Hormuz highlights the high degree of uncertainty surrounding the outlook for oil exports from the Gulf region. A further escalation of the situation could exacerbate the risk of a short-term surge in oil prices. 2. Regarding infrastructure, Goldman Sachs expects pipeline capacity bypassing the Strait of Hormuz to increase by an additional 3.8 million barrels per day by the end of 2027, and a cumulative increase of 7.3 million barrels per day by the end of 2028. This capacity expansion will form an effective supply alternative in the medium to long term. 3. Goldman Sachs further points out that the continued expansion of the onshore and sea-sea pipeline network bypassing Hormuz will pose a downside risk to its long-term oil price forecast—the baseline scenario of $76 per barrel. This means that even with repeated escalations in the Gulf, the increased alternative shipping capacity will limit the long-term upside potential for oil prices. 4. In summary, Goldman Sachs' assessment indicates that current oil prices face a dual contradiction: short-term surges and medium- to long-term declines. Impulsive geopolitical shocks could push prices higher, while continued pipeline capacity releases will exert downward pressure on the central oil price level.
