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2026-07-13 14:10:47
[Prediction Market Users Have Bets Over $197 Million on Midterm Election Results] (1) According to NBC News, prediction market users have bet over $197 million on the results of the US midterm elections. The media analyzed 1,408 open markets on Kalshi and Polymarket, platforms that allow users to bet on a variety of topics, including sports, global events, and political elections. (2) As of Sunday evening, Kalshi data showed that the most likely outcome of the November midterm elections is that the Democrats control both the House and Senate (46% probability), followed by the Republicans controlling the Senate and the Democrats controlling the House (38% probability). Kalshi believes there is a 17% chance that the Republicans will maintain a slight control of both houses, and only a 1.7% chance that the Democrats will flip the Senate and the Republicans will retain the House. (3) Betting on elections through prediction markets is not a new phenomenon. During the 2024 election, Polymarket users bet $3.2 billion on the presidential race between Trump and Harris, with the majority of the bets placed on Trump. (4) In recent months, there have also been several cases of suspected betting on prediction markets using insider information: New York federal prosecutors have charged a Google employee with betting on the 2025 "Search of the Year" list using non-public data; the Department of Justice has charged a U.S. Army soldier with betting on the capture of former Venezuelan President Maduro using details of a raid operation, profiting more than $400,000. (5) Despite the huge amount of money involved in election betting, a recent Politico poll (conducted by Public First from May 17-19) showed that 44% of respondents believed betting on election results should be illegal, 30% believed it should be legal, and 25% were unsure.
