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2026-07-13 15:29:50
[ING Analysts: Geopolitics Pushes Up Brent Crude Prices, But Speculators Remain Cautious] 1. ING analysts Warren Paterson and Eva Mansi noted that Brent crude oil prices surged nearly 5% at one point due to escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf and a slowdown in transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The gains have since narrowed to 3.8%, trading around $78.89 per barrel. 2. Analysts pointed out that despite renewed hostilities between the US and Iran, speculators remain reluctant to enter the oil market. The latest positioning data shows that in the last reporting week, speculators reduced their net long positions in ICE Brent crude oil by 547 contracts, to 55,087 contracts last Tuesday. 3. The International Energy Agency's latest monthly report shows that the agency expects oil demand to gradually recover this year. The IEA forecasts a year-on-year decline of 4.8 million barrels per day in demand in the second quarter of 2026, with the decline narrowing to 1.7 million barrels per day in the third quarter, before recovering to a year-on-year increase of 1.2 million barrels per day in the final quarter of this year. This largely depends on the trajectory of US-Iran tensions. 4. The IEA estimates that global oil supply increased by 4.1 million barrels per day in June, while global oil inventories rose by 21 million barrels that month, the first increase in four months. ING analysts stated that demand recovery and supply risks will depend on further developments in the US-Iran situation.
