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2026-07-13 17:26:12
[Nigeria's Crude Oil Production Hits Six-Year High, Quota Exceeded, Supply Pressure Resurfaces] ⑴ Data released Sunday by Nigeria's Upstream Regulatory Commission showed that the country's average daily crude oil production rose to 1.56 million barrels in June, exceeding the OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels per day by 4 percentage points, achieving a compliance rate of 104%. ⑵ Including condensate, which is not subject to quota restrictions, Nigeria's total oil production averaged 1.735 million barrels per day in June, continuing its upward trend from 1.7 million barrels per day in May, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth. ⑶ This production level is the highest since April 2020, representing a peak in the past 74 months, with stable operations and improved pipeline reliability being the main driving forces. ⑷ Stable operation of production assets, coupled with the absence of major pipeline disruptions, effectively supported the efficiency of crude oil extraction and transportation, contributing to the continued release of the country's supply capacity. ⑸ The significant recovery in supply, coupled with concerns about the demand outlook triggered by Trump's tariff rhetoric, has led to a more cautious market expectation of supply-demand balance, strengthening the expectation of short-term downward pressure on oil prices. (6) Going forward, market attention will focus on whether Nigeria can maintain its current production levels, and the compliance of other oil-producing countries with their quotas. Supply variables may become the core disruptive factor in oil market pricing in the near term.
