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[US-Iran Conflict Pushes Oil Prices Near $80, Strait of Hormuz Traffic Plummets, Covert Passage Becomes the Norm] ⑴ Crude oil prices surged on Monday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for August delivery rising 2.8% to $72.83 per barrel, briefly touching $75.08. Brent crude for August delivery rose approximately 2.9% to $77.60, briefly approaching the $80 mark in early trading. ⑵ An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman stated on Monday that the US-Iran memorandum of understanding had undoubtedly entered a crisis phase. Iran claimed that navigation in the Strait of Hormuz had ceased, but the US Central Command refuted this, stating that Iran did not control the strait and that traffic was unimpeded. ⑶ Ship tracking data showed that only six vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, the lowest level in five weeks. UBS analysts pointed out that the number of so-called covert passages over the past three days has exceeded the observable volume, with vessels turning off their transponders to avoid risk. (4) Saxo Bank strategists stated that despite rising concerns about the safe passage of oil and other commodities through the Strait of Hormuz, the relatively modest premium between near-month and far-month futures contracts indicates that the spot crude oil market remains orderly. (5) Tickmill Group strategists pointed out that current Brent crude oil prices are well below the levels of $95 at the end of February after the outbreak of the conflict and $100 at the end of May. The 10-year US Treasury yield is above 4.5%, and given that current oil prices are not significantly deviating from a reasonable range, the yield rose slightly by 1.7 basis points to 4.579% on Monday. (6) The future direction of oil prices depends on the actual resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, whether the US-Iran military conflict escalates further, and the progress of international mediation efforts.