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2026-07-13 18:52:10
[Lithium carbonate opened lower but rebounded slightly, with mine shipments returning to normal; the oscillating pattern continues under tight balance] ⑴ Lithium carbonate opened lower but rallied on Monday, closing up 0.07%. Intense competition between bulls and bears led to temporary price stability, with insufficient short-term directional drivers. ⑵ Data from China United Metals Exchange (CUMEC) shows that Chilean lithium salt shipments totaled approximately 8,000 tons as of last week, maintaining a relatively stable level. Australian spodumene shipments reached approximately 80,000 tons last week, an increase of 22,000 tons week-on-week, with weekly shipments returning to normal and showing a significant decline from the June peak. ⑶ While port arrivals remain high, strong downstream demand has led to a slight decrease in domestic port lithium concentrate inventories, providing some bottom support for prices. ⑷ Since Jianxiawo announced its resumption of production, market trading logic has shifted from betting on whether production resumes to betting on the scale of production. Considering that capacity ramp-up will take time, a tight balance between supply and demand is expected in the short term. (5) The continued low macro sentiment has put pressure on overall commodity valuations. Coupled with the gradual digestion of expectations for the resumption of production on the supply side, lithium prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. In the future, attention should be paid to changes in the production schedule of downstream cathode materials and whether the pace of port inventory reduction can be sustained.
