Download App

[Caixin Futures: Geopolitical Risks Reignite, But Pricing Restrained; Crude Oil and Fuel Oil Fluctuate, Asphalt Bearish] ⑴ Crude Oil: The US response to Iran's attack on merchant ships has brought geopolitical risks back into the market. However, pricing in the face of a significant escalation of the situation remains relatively restrained. Brent crude oil retreated after hitting the $80/barrel resistance level, indicating continued pressure. Basis for some chemical products is high, and downstream restocking is expected. Crude oil and domestic chemical products are expected to fluctuate in the short term; chasing highs is not recommended. ⑵ Fuel Oil: Renewed geopolitical tensions have driven a rebound, but considering the market's relatively restrained pricing in the face of a significant escalation, it is recommended that long positions be reduced appropriately, maintaining a high-level fluctuation strategy in the short term. ⑶ Asphalt: Today, the price of 70# heavy-grade asphalt in Shandong is 4315 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day. Increased supply pressure expectations, coupled with weak downstream purchasing, have resulted in only sporadic transactions driven by immediate needs. Crude oil rebounded, but industry confidence has not fully recovered, and weak supply and demand are limiting upward potential. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic asphalt refineries will increase by 3.9 percentage points to 20.3%. As of July 13, the inventory of 54 sample asphalt plants in China was 749,000 tons, an increase of 0.5% compared to July 9 and a decrease of 7.0% year-on-year; the inventory of 104 social inventories was 990,000 tons, a decrease of 1.5% compared to July 9 and a decrease of 45.7% year-on-year. Overall, the market is in a weak supply and demand situation. Inventory is low, but expectations of supply recovery are taking hold, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly. (4) Glass: Transactions in the North China market were generally average, with prices mostly stable. The transaction center of some small plates shifted slightly downward, and market trading was weak. Last week, float glass inventory was 76 million weight boxes, a decrease of 59,000 weight boxes (-0.08%) week-on-week and an increase of 13.26% year-on-year. Glass technology upgrades will raise industry costs, keeping supply low, but demand expectations remain weak. Medium-term supply and demand pressure remains, and the market is expected to fluctuate at low levels. (5) Soda Ash: The market trend was average, with prices hovering at the bottom and limited drivers. Some enterprises experienced plant maintenance and fluctuations, resulting in a downward trend in output, with a daily output of approximately 105,000 tons and a capacity utilization rate of 77.78%. On Monday, total soda ash manufacturer inventory was 1.7501 million tons, an increase of 3,100 tons (+0.18%) compared to last Thursday; total social inventory remained around 490,000 tons. Futures and spot basis offers: Hebei warehouse delivery 09-20, Shahe delivered to flat to 09+10, Inner Mongolia plant delivery 09-270 to 300, Hubei warehouse delivery 09-40, Shandong plant delivery 09+10. The medium-term outlook remains high supply and weak demand, and low-level fluctuations are expected. ⑹ Methanol: Today's Taicang spot price was 2647 yuan/ton, +27 yuan; Inner Mongolia North Line price was 2155 yuan/ton, -27.5 yuan. US-Iran relations have tightened again, with the US stating that military strike options remain available, and Iran announcing the re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, boosting market expectations. Geopolitical risks have escalated again, but the market reaction has been relatively restrained. Methanol is expected to fluctuate, and short positions can be taken when the price rises.