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[Iran draws a red line in the Strait of Hormuz, geopolitical risk premium soars, US Treasury bonds and oil prices unlikely to cool down in the short term] ⑴ Iran's Supreme Joint Military Command issued a strong warning, clearly stating that it will not allow the United States to interfere in the management of the Strait of Hormuz, and any attempt to pass through the strait without Iranian authorization will be met with strong resistance. This is the highest-level military statement from Iran since the weekend's clashes between the US and Iran. ⑵ Iran further warned regional countries that any cooperation with the United States will be considered an act of war against Iran, and pointed out that if the war escalates, it will affect all countries in the region, placing the responsibility on the United States and its allies. This comprehensive warning significantly increases the probability of an escalation of military conflict in the Middle East. ⑶ Iran also emphasized that it will resolutely respond to the US military's interference with the safety of commercial ships and oil tankers outside of Iran's designated shipping lanes without the permission of the armed forces. This means that the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important oil transport chokepoint, is facing a direct threat to its navigation safety. (4) Crude oil prices had already risen by about 4% in a single day due to the weekend's US-Iran clashes. Iran's official statement was extremely strong, elevating its control over the Strait of Hormuz to a national security red line. The geopolitical risk premium is unlikely to subside early this week, and energy prices face further upward pressure. (5) US Treasury yields continued their upward trend during Monday's Asian trading session, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.585% and the 2-year yield to 4.231%. Iran's statement will further strengthen inflation concerns. If geopolitical tensions continue to escalate, risk aversion will continue to dominate asset price movements before Wednesday's CPI data release. (6) Market participants need to closely monitor actual navigation activity in the Strait of Hormuz. After Iran drew a clear red line, any friction involving US ships or commercial oil tankers in the region could become a sharp trigger for short-term price movements. Coupled with this week's Federal Reserve Chairman's congressional hearings and the release of inflation data, asset volatility will remain high due to the confluence of multiple risk events.