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[Dollar Index Stabilizes Awaiting Breakout; Three Major Events Could Cause Volatility] ⑴ The dollar index held steady at 100.9 on Monday, remaining near this level throughout July. Investors continue to weigh the evolving geopolitical situation in the Middle East against the outlook for US monetary policy, resulting in a temporary balance between bullish and bearish forces. ⑵ Uncertainty surrounding the renewed military clashes between the US and Iran and the status of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has driven up oil prices. Tensions in the energy market have provided some safe-haven support for the dollar, but upside potential is limited by the market's cautious anticipation of key events this week. ⑶ This week is packed with important events. The US CPI and PPI reports will provide the latest clues to inflation trends, while Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's testimony to Congress may release key signals about the policy path. The combination of these three factors could break the current low volatility of the dollar. ⑷ Interest rate market pricing indicates that traders currently expect the Fed to raise rates at least once this year, with the probability of a September rate hike hovering around 71%. This expectation has been partially priced in by the market, but if inflation data exceeds expectations or Warsh's statements are hawkish, the probability of a rate hike will further increase, boosting the dollar. (5) The US dollar weakened slightly against the euro but strengthened against the yen. The yen's pressure stemmed from market expectations that the Japanese government pension fund's asset allocation would not be adjusted in the short term. This news eased previous market concerns about a large-scale return of Japanese capital to Japan, pushing the dollar higher against the yen. (6) The current narrow sideways movement of the dollar index is unlikely to continue. The actual navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz, CPI readings, and Warsh's rhetoric will jointly determine the next direction. If geopolitical risks do not escalate significantly and inflation falls moderately, the dollar may face downward pressure; conversely, if inflation remains stubborn and hawkish testimony prevails, the dollar index is expected to break through the consolidation range since July.