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[Global Coffee Exports Continue to Shrink, Brazilian Arabica Suffers 15th Consecutive Month of Decline, Robusta Defies the Trend] ⑴ Global exports of green or raw coffee fell 4.1% year-on-year to 10.8 million bags (60 kg per bag) in May. The International Coffee Organization's monthly report indicates this is the fifth time in the first eight months of the 2025/26 coffee year that negative growth has occurred, with cumulative annual exports declining by 1.1% compared to the same period last year. ⑵ Among Arabica varieties, "Brazilian Natural Beans" were the biggest drag, with exports falling sharply by 17.2% to 2.73 million bags in May, marking the fifteenth consecutive month of negative growth and the longest decline on record. ⑶ Exports of "Colombian Beans," also belonging to the Arabica category, decreased by 1.7% to 980,000 bags in May, while "Other Beans" also declined by 2.8% to 2.75 million bags. The weakness across all three major Arabica sub-categories reflects continued pressure on demand for high-end coffee beans. (4) In stark contrast to the sluggish performance of Arabica, Robusta, primarily used in instant coffee blends, saw a 4.8% increase in exports in May, reaching 4.34 million bags. Brazil, the largest producer, saw its Robusta exports surge by 195.6% year-on-year to 610,000 bags, becoming the core engine of this growth. (5) The continued divergence in export trends between Arabica and Robusta suggests that downstream roasters and instant coffee producers are prioritizing the supply of lower-cost Robusta, while high-end Arabica faces pressure from a structural contraction in demand. (6) If the negative growth trend in Arabica exports continues in the coming months, it could have a profound impact on the price spread structure between different varieties of international coffee futures. The market needs to closely monitor the recovery of new-season Arabica production capacity in Brazil and further evolution of global consumer preferences.