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2026-07-14 05:20:10
Traders estimate that if Warsh were to lead the Federal Reserve, there would be approximately a 50% probability of a rate hike this month. The trading community generally believes that the likelihood of a US rate hike later this month is nearly 50/50, as rising oil prices and hawkish statements from Fed officials suggest the Fed is likely to act quickly to curb rising inflation. Monday's currency market pricing data showed that after the US launched multiple new strikes against Iran, traders further increased their bets on a 25 basis point rate hike in July; current pricing reflects a near 50% probability of a rate hike, up from less than 40% earlier in the day. This change followed comments from Fed Governor Christopher Warsh, who indicated that if core inflation continues to show signs of spreading price pressures, policymakers may need to initiate rate hikes.
