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[Strait of Hormuz Conflict Escalates, Trump Announces 20% Toll, Oil Prices Surge to One-Month High] 1. On Tuesday morning in Asia, international oil prices continued their surge. Brent crude futures rose nearly 3% to above $85 per barrel, while US WTI crude futures briefly broke through $80 per barrel, both hitting one-month highs. The previous trading day, Brent crude had already surged 9.5%, marking its largest single-day gain since May 2020. This rally has pushed oil prices to their highest level since the US and Iran signed a peace memorandum of understanding on June 17. 2. US President Trump announced on Monday that the US would reinstate a naval blockade against Iran and declared himself "Guardian of the Strait of Hormuz," imposing a 20% toll on all cargo transported through the strait. At the current oil price of approximately $80 per barrel, a supertanker carrying 2 million barrels of crude oil would have to pay approximately $30 million. This fee is far higher than Iran's previous temporary fee of up to $2 million per voyage. The Central Command stated that the blockade would officially take effect at 4 PM Eastern Time on Tuesday. 3. Geopolitical conflicts escalate simultaneously. The UAE Ministry of Defense reported on Monday that two UAE state-owned oil tankers were attacked by Iranian cruise missiles in the southern channel of the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in the death of one Indian crew member and injuries to eight others. The US military has launched airstrikes against Iran for the third consecutive night. Meanwhile, the Houthi rebels in Yemen launched missiles at Saudi Arabia after accusing it of airstrikes on an airport under their control. 4. Citibank warned that Trump's proposal to impose tolls substantially increases the risk of further military escalation, noting a rising possibility that Iran will abandon the memorandum of understanding before the midterm elections—a scenario most likely to keep oil prices high for an extended period. Analysts pointed out that if the conflict expands to target key energy facilities more broadly, oil prices could approach $100 per barrel. 5. The previous week, the market had anticipated a de-escalation based on the interim US-Iran agreement, with Brent crude oil prices briefly falling to around $67 per barrel; however, the price reductions resulting from the de-escalation have now been almost entirely reversed. Despite Trump's claim that the Strait of Hormuz will remain "open with or without Iran," the military confrontation between the two sides and plans to impose tolls are systematically repricing geopolitical risks.