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2026-07-14 09:44:10
【Australian Business Confidence Improves in June, But Current Situation Remains Stable; Middle East Situation Pushes Up Oil Prices】 (1) A survey by the National Australia Bank (NAB) showed that the business current situation index remained stable at +3 for the third consecutive month in June, while the confidence index rebounded sharply from the extreme low of -14 in May to -5. (2) The improvement in confidence was mainly due to the previous interim peace agreement between the US and Iran, which eased cost pressures and reduced the rate of increase in product prices to the level of February, with retail prices falling for the first time in seven years; however, the situation in the Gulf has recently escalated again, with the US resuming military strikes and blocking the Strait of Hormuz, causing Brent crude oil to rise to US$85 per barrel, a new high since mid-June. (3) NAB said that the survey results still indicate a slowdown in economic activity in the first half of 2026, but the impact of the Middle East shock on the economy and prices is less severe than expected; in response to the global energy shock, the Reserve Bank of Australia has raised interest rates three times this year to 4.35%, and although it remained unchanged in June, it reiterated that it does not rule out the possibility of further tightening of policy.
