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2026-07-14 11:00:11
[National Australia Bank: US June Core CPI Could Trigger Fed Rate Hike in July if it Reaches 0.3% or Higher] 1. Ray Attrill, Head of FX Strategy at National Australia Bank, stated that if the US June core CPI rises by 0.3% or higher month-on-month, combined with the Producer Price Index (PPI) data to be released later this week, the Fed's preferred core PCE deflator is also likely to rise by 0.3% or higher. 2. Attrill pointed out that this scenario could be a trigger for the Fed to raise interest rates as early as its July meeting. This means that the upcoming US June CPI data will be a key variable in determining whether the Fed will act sooner. 3. The market currently prices in a Fed rate hike in July at approximately 43.3%, but this probability could increase significantly if the core CPI data is stronger than expected. Investors are closely watching the CPI data scheduled for release on Tuesday evening to determine whether the Fed will take action at its policy meeting later this month.
