International silver prices rebounded sharply during Tuesday's Asian trading session, with spot silver (XAG/USD) trading around $58.26 per ounce . While escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East typically favor safe-haven assets, the market is more focused on the potential for rising energy prices to reignite inflation and prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain its restrictive monetary policy, thus continuing to weigh on silver's performance. Tensions between the United States and Iran have escalated further. US President Trump announced the reinstatement of maritime blockades against Iranian vessels and mandated a 20% compensatory fee for all commercial goods transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Simultaneously, the US continues to strengthen its military operations in the Middle East, further exacerbating market concerns about global energy supply security. The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20% of global seaborne crude oil transport . As market concerns about potential disruptions to energy transportation have fueled a continued rise in international crude oil prices, significantly strengthening investor expectations of rising global energy prices and a resurgence of inflation. Since silver, like gold, is a precious metal that does not generate interest income, its investment appeal typically diminishes when the market anticipates high interest rates for an extended period. Meanwhile, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have become increasingly hawkish. Inflationary pressures from rising international oil prices have led investors to believe that the Fed may maintain restrictive policies for an extended period to prevent a resurgence of inflation. This expectation supports the US dollar and US Treasury yields, while also putting significant pressure on silver prices. Currently, market focus is shifting to the upcoming release of the US June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The market expects the US overall CPI to be around -0.1% month-on-month in June, while the core CPI is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month. If core inflation continues to be resilient, it will further strengthen market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its high-interest-rate policy, and silver may continue to be under pressure. If inflation is lower than market expectations, it is expected to weaken the dollar and drive a technical rebound in silver. In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will testify before Congress that day, and his latest assessment of the future interest rate path, inflation situation, and economic outlook will also be the focus of market attention. If his speech continues to release hawkish signals, the dollar and US Treasury yields may rise further, and silver will still face downward pressure in the short term. If the wording is more dovish, it is expected to improve the sentiment in the precious metals market. From a technical perspective, spot silver continues its downward trend on the daily chart, with prices falling to near the main moving averages, and the bullish momentum has weakened. The MACD indicator maintains a death cross structure, and the green bars continue to expand, indicating that the bears still have the upper hand; the RSI indicator has fallen back to around 50, and market sentiment is gradually weakening. If silver prices break below the $57.00 support level, they may further test the $56.20 and $55.50 areas; if they regain a foothold above $58.50 , they could potentially challenge the $59.00 and $60.00 resistance levels. On the 4-hour chart, spot silver maintains a downward trend, with the price center continuing to decline. The MACD indicator is running below the zero line, indicating that bearish momentum still dominates, but the rate of expansion of the green bars has slowed; the RSI remains around 45, suggesting a cautious short-term market sentiment. If US CPI data is higher than market expectations, silver may continue to test the $57.00 and $56.20 support areas; if inflation data is lower than expected, silver prices may retest the $58.50 and $59.00 resistance levels, with significant volatility expected in the short term. Editor's Summary: The current silver market is primarily influenced by inflation expectations and Federal Reserve policy expectations. Escalating tensions in the Middle East have driven up international oil prices, exacerbating market concerns about energy prices leading to a rebound in inflation, and continuing to suppress silver prices due to high interest rate expectations. In the short term, the US June CPI data and Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech will be the core focus of the market. If US inflation shows a significant cooling, silver is expected to see a phase of rebound; if inflation remains resilient, the US dollar and US Treasury yields may rise further, and silver will still face the risk of further correction.