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[US June CPI Preview: Overall Inflation Slows Due to Falling Oil Prices, But Core Inflation Remains Sticky, Risk of Interest Rate Hikes Remains] 1. The US Department of Labor will release the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 PM Beijing time on Tuesday. Influenced by gasoline prices falling from $4.61 per gallon in May to $4.18 per gallon, the market expects the overall CPI to decline by 0.1% month-on-month, potentially recording its first monthly negative growth since May 2020; the year-on-year increase is expected to slow to 3.8% from 4.2% in May, with economists believing that 4.2% may be the peak of this round of inflation. 2. However, core inflation remains sticky. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, is expected to rise 2.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, unchanged from May. Service sector inflation (hotels, restaurants, airfares, and World Cup-related services) and a rebound in auto insurance costs remain the main drivers. Analysts point out that the price increase of Apple products at the end of June and drought in some areas may push up food costs, which will be reflected in subsequent data. 3. The energy outlook remains uncertain. Oil prices rebounded to $80 a barrel on Tuesday, with the national average gasoline price rising to $3.87 from $3.80 a gallon a week earlier after Trump announced the restoration of the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Further upside risks exist if the Middle East conflict escalates and the Strait remains blocked. 4. Regarding the Federal Reserve, the minutes of its June meeting showed policymakers were increasingly concerned about inflation, but they kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. The market has priced in a 76% probability of a September rate hike. Pantheon Macroeconomics' chief U.S. economist stated that the June CPI data will not provide a clear answer to whether the Fed will raise interest rates this year. 5. Economists point out that although gas station prices have eased somewhat, food prices are under upward pressure due to war-driven increases in fertilizer and distribution costs, and consumers are still feeling significant pressure. The impact of tariffs is expected to ease, but clothing and home furnishing prices may rebound.