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2026-07-14 15:26:12
[Bank of America Survey: Cash Plunge Triggers Sell Signal, Investors Optimistic but Trading Extremely Crowded] (1) Global investors’ cash levels have fallen from 4.1% to an “extremely low” level of 3.6%, triggering a sell signal under Bank of America’s cash rules; meanwhile, investor sentiment has risen to its highest level since February, boosted by a “booming” macroeconomy, AI capital spending and the Fed’s dovish stance. (2) A record 54% of surveyed fund managers expect a “no-landing” scenario for the global economy, while only 2% expect a “hard landing.” (3) 82% of investors believe that “going long on global semiconductors” is the most crowded trade globally; although long positions in tech stocks were reduced in July, no one is currently shorting the sector. In addition, 61% of fund managers expect AI hyperscale companies will not cut capital spending this year, while only 28% expect them to. (4) Fund managers have lowered their year-end 2026 oil price forecasts from $86 in June to $71; meanwhile, 83% of investors expect the Fed will not raise interest rates before the US midterm elections in November.
