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[US Small Business Optimism Index Nears 52-Year Average in June, But Inflation Concerns Rise to Nearly Two-Year High] ⑴ Data released Tuesday by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFI) showed that the Small Business Optimism Index rebounded 2.1 points month-on-month to 97.4 in June, approaching the 52-year historical average of 98.0. The Uncertainty Index fell 2 points to 89, but remains well above the historical average of 68, reflecting a temporary boost to sentiment from the earlier decline in gasoline prices during the fragile US-Iran ceasefire. ⑵ However, inflationary pressures have once again become the core issue. 21% of business owners listed inflation as their most pressing problem, up 3 percentage points from May, reaching the highest level since October 2024. Meanwhile, the proportion of owners who reported raising their average selling price rose to 38%, the highest level since January 2023, and has continued to rise for four consecutive months, indicating that cost transmission is still ongoing. (3) The job market exhibits a supply-demand mismatch, with the proportion of unfilled job vacancies rebounding by 3 percentage points to 32%. Although the proportion planning price increases in the next three months has slightly decreased to 32%, supporting some economists' judgment that inflation may have peaked in May, high living costs are exacerbating the labor shortage. Respondents in Indiana's agriculture and California's retail sectors both pointed out that housing affordability issues directly constrain employee retention and hiring. (4) The June non-farm payroll data released this week already showed a significant slowdown in job growth. Meanwhile, gasoline prices rebounded to $3.87 per gallon after the renewed military conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, adding uncertainty to small business operating costs and the outlook for end-user demand. It remains to be seen whether cost pressures will force more homeowners to translate their price increases into concrete actions, thereby affecting expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy path.