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Live Updates  >  Live Update Details

2026-07-14 18:04:12

[Wash's Congressional Debut to Set the Tone for the Fed's Independent Path; Personnel Arrangements and Policy Rhetoric Signal Distancing from Trump] ⑴ Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh is scheduled to appear before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday and then the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday. This will be his first public policy presentation to both houses of Congress since taking office in May. The market is closely watching how he will maintain Trump's trust while anchoring the boundaries of independent decision-making. ⑵ Early governance signals indicate that Warsh is deliberately distancing himself from traditional political interference. The special task force appointed last week is mainly composed of well-known economists, corporate executives, and former central bank officials, emphasizing professionalism and a neutral arbitrary role. It does not include ideological or partisan figures commonly found in other federal agencies. Johns Hopkins University professor and former senior advisor to Powell, Foster, commented that the first press conference has dispelled concerns that he will become a "puppet." (3) In terms of policy stance, Warsh did not submit interest rate forecasts at the June FOMC meeting and explicitly opposed forward guidance. The post-meeting statement indicated that only one policy proposal was discussed and no discussion of interest rate cuts took place. This contrasts sharply with the radical style of his predecessor, Milan, who advocated for interest rate cuts six times during his tenure and repeatedly expressed dissent. His personnel team also included Republican writers from the Bush administration and conservative policy analysts from Stanford University, but there were no signs of leaning towards the MAGA camp. (4) The current core contradiction lies in the fact that if inflation remains stubborn and pressure from colleagues to raise interest rates accumulates, the relationship between Warsh and the president will face a real test. Although Trump publicly demanded his "complete independence" at the inauguration, former Cleveland Fed President Mester pointed out that the sustainability of such a commitment remains to be seen, while former Powell advisor Foster believes that Warsh has the "luxury of space to step out of his initial position and take a long-term objective perspective." His historical positioning and re-election prospects depend on the balanced signals conveyed by this congressional hearing.

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