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[Middle East benchmark crude oil spot premium jumps over $2.70 in a single day; shipping insurance premium in the Strait of Hormuz may be repriced] ⑴ On Tuesday, spot prices for Middle East benchmark crude oil varieties Oman, Dubai, and Murban jumped sharply from a discount to a premium, marking the first time in about a month that the market has returned to a spot premium, with spot prices higher than forward prices. This directly reflects the expectation that escalating geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz will squeeze spot supply. ⑵ Iran's missile attacks on two oil tankers belonging to Abu Dhabi National Oil Company directly threaten transshipment operations along the coasts of the UAE and Oman. Trade and shipping sources say the latest developments may make shipowners cautious about entering the Gulf to load crude oil. Chartered vessels are closely monitoring the situation, while refineries are beginning to worry about whether contracted cargoes can be delivered on time in the coming weeks. (3) The spot trading window was highly active, with the cash Dubai premium over swap contracts surging by $2.74 to $1.52 per barrel in a single day. Vitol sold a cargo of Omani crude oil for September loading to Trafigura, and the bid-ask spread narrowed significantly, indicating that traders are paying higher premiums for potential disruption risks. (4) From a psychological perspective, previously accumulated short positions were forced to be covered by the sudden geopolitical shock. The concerns about global trade friction triggered by Trump's tariff remarks, coupled with the Straits toll plan, created a policy synergy effect. Going forward, attention should be paid to whether the US-Iran military standoff escalates further to a critical point of blockade, and whether Asian refineries activate emergency procurement plans to hedge against supply chain disruption risks.