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2026-07-15 10:04:14
[Gold Faces Short-Term Pressure Due to Intertwined Risks of Oil Prices and Interest Rates, Potentially Falling to $3500 in Extreme Circumstances] 1. Market analysis indicates that the direction of US monetary policy and fluctuations in international oil prices remain the two core variables determining the short-term trend of gold. If the US-Iran conflict continues to escalate, prolonging the duration of oil prices at current levels, the Federal Reserve's maintenance of high interest rates may exceed current market expectations. 2. Independent analyst Razaqzada warns that if oil prices remain high, it may further suppress the safe-haven demand for gold, posing a downside risk to gold prices. The target price may be $3800 per ounce, and in extreme cases, it may even reach the $3500 level. 3. The Wall Street Journal analysis also points out that continued inflation driven by oil prices will increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, further weakening the attractiveness of this non-interest-bearing asset in the current macroeconomic environment.
