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2026-07-15 17:08:15
[French Soft Wheat Production Cuts Sound Supply Alarm; Stable Rapeseed Prices Cannot Mask Tight Grain Market] ⑴ The French Ministry of Agriculture released its 2026 soft wheat production forecast on Wednesday at 32 million tons, a 4% decrease from 2025 and about 2% below the five-year average, clearly signaling a production cut. ⑵ For barley, the total production forecast, including both winter and spring seasons, is 11.1 million tons, a 6.3% year-on-year decline and 2.3% lower than the five-year average, a more significant drop. ⑶ Rapeseed production remains at 4.63 million tons, unchanged from last year, making it the only major crop in this assessment that did not show a decline. ⑷ In addition, the Ministry of Agriculture maintained its 2026 corn planting area forecast at 1.31 million hectares, and the sugar beet planting area also remained unchanged at 373,000 hectares. ⑸ Overall, as the EU's largest grain producer, the simultaneous reduction in soft wheat and barley production in France will tighten the regional supply situation, potentially supporting international wheat prices. ⑹ The market will continue to monitor weather changes and harvest progress. If yields are further damaged, the EU's export competitiveness may be weakened, and global grain trade flows may be adjusted accordingly.
