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[US Airstrikes on Strait of Hormuz Spark Soaring Geopolitical Premiums, Potentially Adding Fuel to Oil Price Surge Amid Tight Market Balance] ⑴ The US Central Command announced on Wednesday an airstrike on Grand Tunb Island in the Strait of Hormuz, targeting Iranian defense and missile facilities. The operation lasted approximately 90 minutes, and the command stated that this action further weakened Iran's ability to attack merchant ships in the strait. ⑵ Iran, in turn, accused the US of attacking its army barracks, resulting in the deaths of at least seven soldiers and injuries to over 260 others. Iran declared it would respond decisively to the US aggression, while Revolutionary Guard officials threatened that Middle Eastern energy exports would either be open to everyone or completely cut off. ⑶ The US had previously imposed a naval blockade in April, which was lifted last month following a temporary agreement. However, with escalating tensions surrounding the strait and stalled negotiations, the US reimposed the blockade this week and launched multiple rounds of airstrikes in the past few days, even resuming attacks during the day—a rare occurrence—indicating a significant acceleration in the pace of the attacks. (4) The Strait of Hormuz carries about one-fifth of the world's oil and gas trade. Since the start of the conflict in late February, Iran has effectively cut off the waterway, causing oil and fertilizer prices to soar. Brent crude oil rose above $85 a barrel on Wednesday, up more than 15% from before the conflict. (5) Analysts at the International Monetary Fund warn that the spare capacity and inventory buffers that previously supported low oil prices have been largely exhausted. With the renewed escalation of tensions in the Strait, the global energy market will have to cope with subsequent shocks from a weaker supply base. While regional mediators are still trying to push the US and Iran back to negotiations, market sentiment in the short term is clearly more driven by geopolitical risks.