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[Caixin Futures: Continued Geopolitical Tensions Push Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, and Asphalt Higher] ⑴ Crude Oil: The US continues bombing Iran, stating that the Strait of Hormuz remains open to all countries except Iran but will charge a 20% fee on transiting goods, effectively reimposing a blockade on Iran; Iran maintains the Strait remains closed. The sharp rise in international oil prices has driven up chemical prices. With geopolitical tensions unlikely to ease significantly in the short term, chemical prices may remain bullish. ⑵ Fuel Oil: Renewed geopolitical tensions have driven a rebound in fuel oil prices. The market had previously been restrained in pricing in response to a significant escalation of the situation, but with the US imposing a 20% fee on transiting goods through the Strait of Hormuz, short-term supply constraints have increased significantly, suggesting a bullish outlook in the short term. ⑶ Asphalt: Today, the price of 70# heavy-grade asphalt in Shandong is 4355 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan from the previous day. Increased supply pressure is expected, but industry confidence has not fully recovered. The rebound in international oil prices has injected upward momentum into asphalt prices. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic asphalt refineries will increase by 3.9 percentage points to 20.3%. As of July 13, the inventory of 54 sample asphalt plants in China was 749,000 tons, an increase of 0.5% compared to July 9 and a decrease of 7.0% year-on-year; the inventory of 104 social warehouses was 990,000 tons, a decrease of 1.5% compared to July 9 and a decrease of 45.7% year-on-year. Overall, the market is in a weak supply and demand situation with low inventory levels. The escalating tensions between the US and Iran are the main trading logic at present, and short-term fluctuations with a slight upward bias are expected. (4) Glass: The overall trading in the Shahe market was average, with some small-plate prices softening. Industry players are cautiously observing the market. Last week, float glass inventory was 76 million weight boxes, a decrease of 59,000 weight boxes (-0.08%) week-on-week and an increase of 13.26% year-on-year. Glass technology upgrades will raise industry costs, keeping supply low, but demand expectations remain weak. Medium-term supply and demand pressures remain, and low-level fluctuations are expected. (5) Soda Ash: The market trend is stabilizing, with prices fluctuating narrowly at the bottom. Plant operations are stable with no maintenance shutdowns, and daily output remains around 105,000 tons. Downstream demand is generally on an as-needed basis, with weak overall sentiment and insufficient driving force. On Monday, total soda ash manufacturer inventory was 1.7501 million tons, an increase of 3,100 tons (+0.18%) from last Thursday; total social inventory remained around 490,000 tons. Futures-spot basis offers: Hebei warehouse delivery 09-20, Shahe delivered to flat to 09+10, Inner Mongolia plant delivery 09-270 to 300, Hubei warehouse delivery 09-35, Shandong plant delivery 09+10. High supply and weak demand are unlikely to change in the medium term, and low-level fluctuations are expected. (6) Methanol: Today, the spot price in Taicang is 2690 yuan/ton, -32 yuan; the price in the northern Inner Mongolia region is 2205 yuan/ton, +7.5 yuan. US-Iran relations are escalating, with the US imposing a 20% charge on transit cargo, and Iran announcing the re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This week, methanol port inventory was 401,500 tons, a decrease of 45,200 tons from the previous period; sample production enterprise inventory was 380,900 tons, a decrease of 10,900 tons from the previous period. Geopolitical risks have escalated again. While the market reaction was relatively restrained initially, with the US blocking the Taiwan Strait and increasing transit fees, expectations of supply contraction are rising, and methanol is expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward bias.