2026-07-15 20:48:13
[Caixin Futures: Edible Oils Show Slightly Stronger Trend, Soybean Meal and Corn Show Weakness, Live Hogs Sell on Rallies, Eggs Buy on Dips] ⑴ Edible Oils: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East pushed international oil prices higher, leading to a slightly stronger trend in edible oil futures. Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures contracts all closed slightly higher. Spot prices rose: Guangdong 24-degree palm oil rose 40 yuan to 9170 yuan/ton, soybean oil rose 10 yuan to 8820 yuan/ton, and Jiangsu genetically modified rapeseed oil rose 30 yuan to 10510 yuan/ton. Rapeseed oil spot prices have recently shown strength and a firm basis, providing strong support. However, influenced by the volatility in Canadian rapeseed futures, the upward breakout has been weak. Domestic soybean oil fundamentals are weak. The peak season for soybean arrivals has not yet passed, with imports reaching 13.5472 million tons in June. Cumulative imports from January to June increased by 1.5% year-on-year. Domestic crushing volume is nearly 10 million tons, leading to continued inventory accumulation. Palm oil is entering its seasonal off-season, with reduced demand and sluggish spot transactions. These fundamental factors continue to suppress the rebound in futures prices. Overall, while the short-term center of gravity for edible oils has risen, there is a lack of substantial positive factors to drive a sustained increase. A range-bound trading strategy is recommended. (2) Soybean Meal: Improved US soybean export expectations coupled with unfavorable weather in producing areas have led to higher US soybean futures prices and increased import costs. Domestic soybean oil and soybean meal futures have followed suit, but spot prices are still in a phase of inventory accumulation, resulting in significant supply pressure. Downstream demand is flat, and there is low enthusiasm for building inventory. The supply-demand imbalance remains unchanged, and the spot basis remains weak. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines and avoid chasing high prices. (3) Corn: The fundamental loose situation remains unchanged. Traders in producing areas are selling according to market conditions. New-season wheat and imported grains are increasing overall supply pressure. Downstream users are mostly maintaining a just-in-time purchasing strategy. Under the background of strong supply and weak demand, prices are expected to remain weak and volatile in the short term. A short-selling strategy on rallies is recommended. (4) Live Pigs: The second breeding season has recently cooled down, leading to weaker spot prices. The futures market correction validates previous logic. A short-selling strategy on rallies is recommended. In the medium to long term, breeding profits may see some recovery, but the scope is limited. On a month-on-month basis, due to the decline in sow inventory 10 months ago, the theoretical supply in the second half of the year will decrease, but the magnitude will be limited. Coupled with the peak consumption season in the second half of the year and policy-guided reduction in production, breeding profits may see a phased recovery. (5) Eggs: Recently, the overall trend has remained strong. Hot weather has lowered egg production rates, and farmers are reluctant to sell, resulting in a slight decrease in supply. The peak demand season is from July to September, with smooth sales at the terminal level. Demand may further increase after mid-to-late July. Given the weak supply and strong demand, inventory has decreased, and egg prices may remain strong. It is recommended to buy on dips.