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2026-07-16 00:10:11
[HSBC Strategist Kettner: Oil Price Surge Doesn't Affect Bullish View] HSBC strategists say the renewed escalation of the Iran war hasn't changed their bullish view on risk assets; they believe the second-quarter earnings season is the more important driver. The team, led by Max Kettner, says the narrative of "high market consensus on the US" doesn't account for the fact that quarterly earnings growth expectations "remain quite low." These strategists say their sentiment and positioning frameworks haven't yet issued any sell signals, adding that systemic investor positioning "remains broadly neutral." They also say the unexpected decline in US June CPI could be an early sign of waning US exceptionalism, which could initially be a "welcome boost" for risk assets, but could turn into a painful trade if US Treasury yields fall and the yield curve steepens again.
