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2026-07-16 10:02:11
[Citrini Research: DRAM Shortage to Reach 28.7EB in 2030, AI Demand Continues to Absorb New Capacity] (1) Research institutions predict that the global DRAM market will experience a large-scale supply gap of approximately 28.7EB in 2030, equivalent to 18% of the total demand that year (compared to the total global capacity of approximately 40EB this year). (2) The demand that year is expected to reach 157.5EB, while the supply is only 128.8EB; among them, the gap in ordinary DRAM is the largest, expanding from the current 18% to about 25% (demand 120EB, supply about 91EB). Even if Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron and Chinese manufacturers continue to expand production, the new capacity will still be absorbed by the rapidly growing AI demand. (3) The root cause of the supply and demand imbalance lies in the explosion of AI infrastructure, with large model training and inference driving up the demand for HBM and traditional server DRAM; under the tight balance, the average selling price (ASP) of DRAM will remain high for a long time (about US$1.5-2 per Gb), and the cost of memory for servers, PCs and consumer electronics will continue to be under pressure.
