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2026-07-16 15:02:12
[Cooling Rate Hike Expectations Weigh on the Dollar, Australian and New Zealand Dollars Hover Near Multi-Week Highs] 1. During Thursday's Asian trading session, the Australian and New Zealand dollars consolidated near multi-week highs. Cooling expectations for a near-term US rate hike and a generally weaker dollar provided some support for risk currencies. 2. The market has largely ruled out a Fed rate hike this month, but remains confident that New Zealand's interest rates will rise at least twice more this year, and Australia's interest rates are also highly likely to rise once more this year. 3. The Australian dollar weakened slightly against the US dollar to US$0.6998, a drop of about 0.1%, after touching a three-week high of US$0.7021 overnight. The next resistance level is at US$0.7071, with support levels at US$0.6913 and US$0.6867 respectively. The Australian dollar rose to a six-week high of 113.67 against the Japanese yen, gaining 1.0% this week, and is currently trading around 113.47. 4. Pepperstone's research director pointed out that a weaker US dollar coupled with a market reassessment of the Federal Reserve's policy path boosted cyclical growth themes. Robust performance in the commodities market also provided support for the Australian dollar to rebound to around 0.70 against the US dollar. 5. The New Zealand dollar rose slightly to US$0.5855, an increase of approximately 0.15%, after reaching a one-month high of US$0.5863 overnight. Resistance is at US$0.5865, with a major target of US$0.5993 and support at US$0.5774. The market still expects a roughly 70% probability of a rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in September and has fully priced in a year-end rate increase to 3.0%.
