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2026-07-16 15:10:12
[Hormuz Strait Traffic Drops Sharply, US Crude Oil May Rise to $87, Market Focuses on New Risks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait] 1. On Wednesday, traffic in the Strait of Hormuz dropped from 13 vessels the previous day to 7, marking the first day of traffic since the US reimposed a maritime blockade on Iran. Shipping industry sources indicated that shipowners are cautiously assessing security risks, further exacerbating market concerns about oil supply disruptions. 2. Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief investment strategist at Nissan Securities, stated, "Although neighboring countries continue to mediate, and the market generally believes that a full-scale war is unlikely, WTI oil prices could still rise to $85 to $87 depending on the development of the conflict." Both Brent and WTI crude oil have risen for four consecutive trading days recently. 3. Analysts point out that Iran has signaled its potential use of its Houthi allies in Yemen to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the gateway to the Red Sea. This would be a new front in the war against the US, simultaneously putting two of the world's most important energy arteries—the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—at risk. If the conflict continues to escalate, oil prices may face even greater upward pressure.
