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2026-07-16 18:26:13
[Monthly Aluminum Market Surplus Cannot Mask Annual Shortfall; WBMS Data Reveals Subtle Shift in Supply and Demand Balance] ⑴ Data from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics shows that in May 2026, global primary aluminum production reached 6.07 million tons, while consumption was 5.9984 million tons, resulting in a monthly surplus of 71,600 tons, ending the previous months' shortage. ⑵ However, cumulative data from January to May still shows a shortage, with total production at 29.9056 million tons and consumption at 30.0253 million tons, resulting in a supply-demand gap of approximately 119,800 tons, indicating that the overall tight balance since the beginning of the year has not fundamentally changed. ⑶ During the same period, global alumina production reached a cumulative total of 61.8714 million tons, with May's production reaching 12.5419 million tons. As a key intermediate in primary aluminum production, its output directly constrains subsequent smelting supply. (4) Bauxite production totaled 206 million tons from January to May, with 37.1085 million tons produced in May alone. Raw material supply is relatively abundant and has not yet posed a significant bottleneck to alumina and primary aluminum production. (5) Regarding recycled aluminum, cumulative production reached 10.7837 million tons in the first five months, with 2.1671 million tons produced in May alone. The scrap aluminum recycling and reuse sector maintained stable output, continuing its substitution effect on primary aluminum. (6) The combination of monthly surplus and cumulative shortage suggests a temporary weakening in demand in May. However, the overall supply and demand pattern for the year remains uncertain. The interplay between the pace of consumption recovery and the speed of smelting capacity release will be the core variable determining the direction of aluminum prices.
