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[Caixin Futures: Escalating US-Iran Conflict Triggers Oil and Chemical Sector Rally, Fuel Oil and Asphalt Follow Crude Oil Higher] ⑴ Crude oil prices fluctuated at high levels. News indicated the US continued bombing Iran, stating the Strait of Hormuz remains open to all countries except Iran, but will impose a 20% fee on goods passing through, reimposing a blockade on Iran. Iran, however, stated the Strait remains closed. The sharp rise in international oil prices significantly strengthened several chemical product markets. Due to the difficulty in significantly easing geopolitical tensions in the short term, chemical products may fluctuate at high levels in the short term. ⑵ Fuel oil prices fluctuated at high levels. News indicated the US took action against Iran in response to Iranian attacks on merchant ships, further escalating geopolitical tensions and causing fuel oil to rebound. Previously, the market's pricing for a significant escalation of the situation remained relatively restrained. With the US re-blocking the Strait of Hormuz, short-term supply constraints have significantly increased, suggesting a short-term high-level fluctuation strategy. ⑶ Asphalt prices fluctuated at high levels. Today, the price of 70# heavy-grade asphalt in Shandong was 4355 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day. Rising costs led to a rebound in asphalt spot prices, but domestic asphalt supply has continued to increase recently. On the supply side, the total output of domestic local asphalt refineries in August was 870,000 tons, an increase of 154,000 tons month-on-month, representing a growth of 21.5%. (4) On the inventory side, as of July 16, the total inventory of 54 sample asphalt plants in China was 774,000 tons, an increase of 3.3% compared to July 13 and a year-on-year increase of 0.1%; the total inventory of 104 social asphalt warehouses in China was 1,004,000 tons, an increase of 1.4% compared to July 13 and a year-on-year decrease of 45.0%. Overall, asphalt is in a weak supply and demand situation, with low inventory levels. The escalating tensions between the US and Iran are the main trading logic in the current market, and it is expected to fluctuate at high levels in the short term. (5) A bearish outlook for glass: Today, some domestic float glass companies traded flexibly, the spot market fluctuated downwards, and downstream buyers purchased on dips, mainly for immediate needs. This week's float glass inventory was 76.107 million weight boxes, an increase of 107,000 weight boxes month-on-month, representing a growth of 0.14% and a year-on-year increase of 17.2%. Glass technology upgrades will raise overall industry costs, keeping supply low, but demand expectations remain weak. Medium-term supply and demand pressures persist, and the glass market is expected to fluctuate with a downward bias. (6) The soda ash market is also expected to be bearish. Today, the domestic soda ash market saw no significant fluctuations, with prices remaining stable. Plant operations are stable, production and sales are basically balanced, and orders are the primary focus. On Thursday, total soda ash manufacturer inventory was 1.7544 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons from Monday, a rise of 0.25%. Previous spot basis offers were: Hebei warehouse delivery 09-30, Shahe delivered to flat to 09+10, Inner Mongolia plant delivery 09-270 to 300, Hubei warehouse delivery 09-35, and Shandong plant delivery 09+10. The high supply and weak demand are unlikely to change in the medium term, and the market is expected to fluctuate with a downward bias.