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2026-07-16 21:32:12
[The Strait of Hormuz Stalemate Remains Unresolved, with the US and Iran Claiming Control, and the IMO Calling for De-escalation as a Priority] ⑴ The memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz broke down just one month after its signing. Both sides claim control of the strait, and the Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) stated that the current situation is highly volatile, and the risk to ship passage is too high without security guarantees from both sides. ⑵ Scholars at the Australian National University pointed out that the US cannot achieve peace through airstrikes alone and has been forced into an awkward stalemate with Iran. The risk of escalation of this conflict had been repeatedly warned of by numerous analysts months ago. ⑶ Last week, the US launched multiple airstrikes against Iranian radar, drone facilities, and naval bases. Iran retaliated with missile strikes against US bases in Jordan and Gulf states, and attacked ships attempting to exit the strait via routes near Oman, leaving hundreds of cargo ships stranded. ⑷ Trump briefly proposed a 20% protection fee for passing cargo ships, but quickly abandoned the proposal after strong opposition from allies and a stock market downturn. A retired US lieutenant general interpreted this as a common negotiating tactic used by the president, believing that Iran would only return to the negotiating table under sustained pressure. (5) The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) emphasized that multilateralism is key to resolving disputes. The previous memorandum of understanding facilitated the evacuation of nearly 3,000 seafarers in late June. The next priority should be mine clearance and restoring passage. Military escort can only serve as a short-term supplementary means to rebuild confidence, not a long-term solution. (6) Regarding the ownership of the Straits of Hormuz, the IMO Secretary-General clarified that according to international law, Iran and Oman are littoral states of the Straits and enjoy administrative rights, not control rights. This difference in wording is the core of the current dispute and needs to be clarified through bilateral and multilateral dialogue. De-escalation of the conflict is a prerequisite for getting back on track.
