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2026-07-17 16:54:12
[Rice Prices Plunge, Government Buyback Stalled, Market Supply and Demand Game Intensifies] ⑴ After two consecutive years of increases, the purchase price of new rice in Japan has reversed course. The recommended purchase price for early rice this season has plummeted by about 20% year-on-year, and advance payments for Koshihikari rice in Miyazaki Prefecture have dropped by nearly half from their high levels, reflecting the overwhelming impact of excessive private inventory on pricing power. ⑵ Supermarket rice prices have continued to soften after breaking through the 4,000 yen mark, falling below 3,500 yen at the beginning of this month, the first time in nearly a year and a half. High private inventory and government reserve releases have combined to exert downward pressure, and market expectations for supply adjustments are turning into a wave of pressure on policymakers. ⑶ Agricultural cooperatives are calling on the government to buy back previously released reserve rice to restore the supply and demand balance, but the Prime Minister's Office rejected the proposal on the grounds of the cost to the people. An emergency resolution by Liberal Democratic Party members and a public appeal by the top agricultural cooperative official have created a dual impetus, demanding that inventory be replenished to the million-ton level. (4) However, the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry is concerned about the potential short-term supply gap caused by pre-harvest procurement. Inventories have been depleted from their high levels to about 30%. The policy balance is oscillating between stabilizing prices and ensuring supply. Market sentiment fluctuates with rumors, and participants are holding their breath and waiting for the next directional signal.
