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2026-07-17 17:56:16
[Middle East benchmark crude oil prices rose this week, with a sharp drop in Strait of Hormuz traffic exacerbating supply anxieties] ⑴ Middle East benchmark crude oils Oman, Dubai, and Murban all recorded weekly gains, with geopolitical premiums once again dominating pricing logic. Escalating conflict between the US and Iran continues to suppress risk appetite. ⑵ On Friday, the Dubai and Oman spot discounts narrowed further, while the Murban premium remained largely stable. Spot market buying showed some resilience amid rising supply disruption probabilities, and high refinery profits also provided a floor for prices. ⑶ Iran announced a new round of strikes against US facilities in the Middle East on Friday, including Syria in its direct attack range for the first time. It also reportedly requested the Houthi rebels to be prepared to blockade the Red Sea oil route, further escalating the threat level to energy transport routes. ⑷ Ship tracking data showed that only three commodity tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, the lowest daily traffic volume since May. Most vessels chose to stop or turn back, reflecting extreme caution among shipowners and charterers regarding safety. (5) The head of the International Energy Agency publicly warned that if the United States and Iran fail to restore oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz in a timely manner, global energy security will face real risks. This statement further strengthened market expectations of a widening supply gap.
