Live Updates > Live Update Details
2026-07-17 18:16:12
[Geopolitical tensions failed to trigger a surge in oil prices; supply surplus expectations suppressed gains] ⑴ Despite the US attack on Iran early Thursday morning escalating the Strait of Hormuz crisis, Brent and WTI crude oil futures only retreated by about 0.8% after three consecutive days of gains, remaining near one-month highs. The market's marginal pricing of geopolitical events has become less pronounced. ⑵ US domestic crude oil production continues to remain near a historical high of 13.5 million barrels per day. Coupled with supply expansion in Brazil, Guyana, and Canada, multiple forecasting agencies still expect the market to maintain a surplus until the end of 2026, significantly mitigating concerns about supply disruptions. ⑶ Demand increases are expected to be around 1.2 million barrels per day, largely in line with previous assessments. Against the backdrop of global refining bottlenecks and macroeconomic headwinds, investors are cautious in pricing the supply-demand gap, unwilling to overly bet on geopolitical risks alone pushing up the price level. (4) Mexican blended oil exports also fell, indicating that the current shock has not significantly widened the regional price gap. If subsequent US military actions do not substantially cut off Iran's export capacity, the upside potential of oil prices will continue to be suppressed by the fundamental oversupply logic.
