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2026-07-17 18:22:16
[Black Sea Export Concerns Continue to Escalate, Chicago Wheat Rises for Third Consecutive Week] ⑴ Chicago wheat futures retreated slightly on Friday, but still gained about 5% this week, poised for a third consecutive week of gains. Concerns about export disruptions in the Black Sea region and tightening supplies in Europe and the US provided key support. ⑵ The escalating drone attacks on ships in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov between Russia and Ukraine, a region crucial for grain exports, have prompted warnings that up to one-third of wheat exports could be at risk if the attacks continue, making a sustained pullback unlikely. ⑶ Deteriorating US crop conditions and progressing harvest schedules have offset each other, limiting analysts' ability to significantly lower production forecasts. Meanwhile, the Russian Agriculture Minister stated that the harvest outlook is good this year, and the government will guarantee fuel supplies for farmers. ⑷ The International Grains Council maintained its global wheat production forecast but explicitly warned of increased uncertainty regarding Black Sea supplies. Soybeans and corn also rose on the week, driven by strong wheat prices. Corn production forecasts were lowered due to the European heatwave.
