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2026-07-17 20:08:13
[Global Central Bank Super Week Approaching: ECB Holds Rates Steady, US-Iran Conflict Continues to Disrupt Markets] ⑴ The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to hold rates steady at 2.25% at its policy meeting next Thursday. Despite oil prices rising by about 20% since July, the unexpected slowdown in Eurozone inflation in June has led the market to bet on a probability of no change exceeding 80%. ⑵ The market has already priced in further tightening of over 40 basis points before the end of the year. The ECB statement and President Lagarde's press conference will be key windows guiding expectations. The preliminary July consumer confidence and PMI data released on the same day will also provide clues about the economic climate. ⑶ US data is relatively light, with only weekly initial jobless claims and the preliminary July S&P PMI worth noting. Federal Reserve officials have entered a pre-meeting quiet period, and the market will mainly rely on data to interpret events before the FOMC decision at the end of July. ⑷ The UK will welcome its new Prime Minister next Monday. Employment and inflation data will dominate the pound's trading logic. These indicators are crucial to the Bank of England's interest rate path, and retail sales and the preliminary PMI will also verify economic resilience. (5) Japan will be closed next Monday, and the week's core trade, CPI, and PMI data will test the struggle between domestic demand and imported inflation. Commodity currency countries will see a flurry of data releases, including New Zealand's CPI, Australian employment, and Canadian retail sales inflation, putting central bank policy expectations under multiple scrutiny.
